We here at Sparty and Friends love to get things wrong. And with about a month until selection Sunday, I decided to let you know who I think is making the Big Dance. Joe Lundardi is the resident Bracketologist at ESPN, and his claim to fame is that he gets them all right (on selection Sunday…).Well I don’t have the time to seed them and put them in brackets with the playing locations of the teams to be named, but I can give ya who is in and who is out.
The first part is fairly easy…
Your One School Conference Bids (22) :
America East – Vermont
Atlantic Sun – Belmont
Big Sky – Weber State
Big South- VMI
Big West – Long Beach State
Colonial – VCU
Horizon- Butler
Ivy -Cornell
MAAC- Siena
MAC – Buffalo
MEAC – The POWERFUL Morgan State
Missouri Valley – Creighton
Northeast – Robert Morris
Ohio Valley – Tennessee-Martin
Patriot – American
Southern – Davidson
Southland – Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern – Alabama State
Summit – North Dakota State
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky
WCC- Gonzaga
WAC – Utah State
Here is where it gets tricky, there are a lot of good teams with good wins out there. And there is always some 13 loss team the selection committee throws in so people can bitch about it, but here’s how I see it finishing…
Your Multiple Bid Leagues (in order of finish):
A-10 (2) – Xavier, Dayton
ACC (7) – UNC, Clemson, Wake Forest, Duke, FSU, Virginia Tech, Miami
Big East(8) – UConn, Pitt, Villanova, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
Big 10 (6) – Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5) – Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Texas, Kansas State
Conference USA (2) – Memphis, UAB
Mountain West (3) – Utah, BYU, UNLV
Pac 10 (6) – UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, USC, Arizona, Cal
SEC (4) -Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, LSU
And just missing the cut:
South Carolina, Georgetown, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Boston College, San Diego State
And your 1 seeds:
UConn, UNC, Oklahoma, and Pitt
Popularity: 2% [?]
Posted in NCAAB
Badgers are looking pretty good now, but their real test is a week from Sunday
and no Maryland? this post is a sham sae(Quote)
I approve of this post. sparty(Quote)
I do too. GatorTrey(Quote)
In order of finish? Pitt gonna beat FNCUH twice? Ain’t happening. patphish(Quote)
I agree. mizerle06(Quote)
Where are Rutgers and Indiana? patphish(Quote)
Oh shit, that shouldn’t be that way. My fault. GatorTrey(Quote)
Nitpicking but technically Northeastern is in 1st in the CAA, they beat VCU head to head. cbh49er(Quote)
What does “in order” mean??!?!?!?!
/old joke guyinthecorner(Quote)
I know my ACC. From TWTWCBB…
“[Wake goes] to NC State this week (always a dangerous place to play)…”
… and from the Duke/UNC post yesterday…
“One of the most storied rivalries in all of sports puts another chapter in the book tonight. In this chapter, the athletes of UNC run over the non-athletic guys of Duke. Duke tries to come back using their three point shooting but can’t find the net. UNC takes it on the road, 102-84.”
The final was actually 101-87 but I’d say close enough. UNC ran the break for 57 second half points while Duke shot 2/15 from the arc in the second half.
/I’m awesome guyinthecorner(Quote)
fixed.
cbh, I almost went to Northeastern at one point so I give them benefit of the doubt. That said, VCU will win the CAA tourny. Which is all you need to do. GatorTrey(Quote)
You’re passing this off as a prediction? Dangerous place to play and NC State wins are two completely different things.
Gator, Mason is taking the CAA tournament.
/homer’d cbh49er(Quote)
I actually had Mason on my missing the cut list at one point. GatorTrey(Quote)
UAB as an at-large seems impossible so are we to assume you have them knocking off Memphis in the CUSA tourney? guyinthecorner(Quote)
Yeah, they have fallen into a road swoon, four straight losses on the road by a total of 10 points, they don’t have a guy who can close games. cbh49er(Quote)
trey-
Most people don’t even give that Wake/NCST game a look. That’s the kind of thunder I bring here. And my prediction for the Duke/UNC game reads like a wrap-up of the game. Look at that score prediction!
And I am awesome.
/obvious’d guyinthecorner(Quote)
if Michigan State wins out in conference and the Big 10 tourney, they will get a 1 seed. sparty(Quote)
No, their RPI is 32 with the 41st SOS. Win over Arizona and a VERY tough out of conference schedule that included Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Butler.
That screams at large. GatorTrey(Quote)
no. sparty(Quote)
From Lunardi today…
/what I’ve been saying the whole time… guyinthecorner(Quote)
The Big East has more teams…and two extra conference games…
Stats like that are shit when you compare like that.
The ACC has on legit national championship contender in UNC…The Big East has 3 UConn, Pitt, and Louisville. GatorTrey(Quote)
GITC-so what you are telling us, is that you don’t have an original thought? That you just regurgitate Joe Lunardi? sparty(Quote)
Still don’t understand why the Big 10 plays 18 games. sparty(Quote)
GITC=Lunardi? sae(Quote)
but sparty, then you don’t have to lose at the Kohl Center this year sae(Quote)
even a blind squirrel gets a nut every now and then. mizerle06(Quote)
My Bulldog’s 2OT loss to LSU last night did a lot of damage to ther effort to get back on the bubble. Unfortunately, the only people that got to see the game were the 10,000 in attendance as Raycom showed UT’s 31 point win over UGA instead. Marcus Thornton and Tas Mitchell are beasts.
I know the SEC sucks this year and no one else cares. graddawg(Quote)
gitc–Knock off the bottom 4 teams out of the Big East and do the stats again…or even knock out the middle 4 to keep the great/horrible balance a bit more similar and then do the stats. rekcalsa(Quote)
I care, graddawg. mizerle06(Quote)
You don’t even have to do that rek. there needs to be some statistical variance in play.
I’m no statistician, but using the number Lunardi provided is just trying to give an answer with BS statistical analysis.
Anyone who came to their boss with stats like that would get them thrown back in their face. GatorTrey(Quote)
I care GatorTrey(Quote)
thanks, miz.
well played, trey. graddawg(Quote)
i still don’t get it. sparty(Quote)
You can’t knock off the bottom teams from the Big East without doing the same for the ACC. So the Big East has 4 more teams so they get to knock off the bottom four. I say knock off the top 4. guyinthecorner(Quote)
again, imho: BEast > ACC. jpmanahan(Quote)
No just analyze them like you would with any uneven sample.
I’m positive it would come up in favor for the Big East. GatorTrey(Quote)
trey-
Lunardi used averages. Isn’t that the way you would do it? guyinthecorner(Quote)
ACC has the Big East beat in conference RPI and Power. Not to mention that the Big Ten has the Big East beat in RPI. guyinthecorner(Quote)
No. Because they are uneven sample sizes. When you have two different sample sizes you have to compare it as if they were the same size. Meaning giving a greater weight on the 12 ACC teams.
Again, it would take awhile, and come pretty complex statistical analysis. But, you cannot just compare a conference with 12 teams to a conference with 16.
You cannot cut any of the teams out, because they do count for something when comparing.
It’s the same approach investors take when trying to figure out best return on investment. GatorTrey(Quote)
Anyone watch both games last night? Who was the best team? NOT. EVEN. CLOSE.
FNCUH. patphish(Quote)
I just saw the second half of Duke UNC. Duke is gonna get worked in the Sweet 16. GatorTrey(Quote)
Thier interior D is non exsistant.
Wait till Tiny Lawson drives the lane against Adrien and Thabeet. He may actually die. patphish(Quote)
It’s nice to see Penn State play their way out of the tourny Johnny(Quote)
johnny, even the big10 network announcers were on them last night
one of them said ‘can’t spell Nittany without NIT’ sae(Quote)