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February 06, 2009

The Odds-On Favorite: The WAY TOO EARLY Predictions Edition

By Big D

Since we’re all in the spirit of putting stupid things in writing 12 months in advance, I figured, why not join the party? I mean, this is the best time to get crazy odds on NFL futures bets, so let’s take a look and see what’s out there for the picking. Remember, back in July I gave you both the Steelers at 16/1 & Cardinals at a ridiculous in hindsight 50/1 odds to win Super Bowl XLIII… who knows what we can find in February for Super Bowl XLIV?

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog are accurate as of 6pm Thursday.That about covers it.)

The Favorites:

New England Patriots: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. The Patriots are opening the off-season as the favorites to win it all. This year, they’re opening at 8/1 odds. Pending the condition of Tom Brady, not to mention if they can fill some pressing defensive needs with the draft and/or whatever they get for trading newly franchised Matt Cassell, the Pats once again need to be the “safety valve” bet for any serious gambler. And at 8/1, you still get a pretty solid return on the bet if they go all the way.

Dallas Cowboys: 9/1 odds? The favorites to win the NFC? Really? What exactly gives the impression that this team is even playoff ready in ’09, let alone the favorites to win the conference? At 9/1, you’re not getting enough return to justify the risk on a team this dysfunctional.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Another 9/1 team, there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to duplicate this year’s success and make another deep playoff run. The Bengals & Browns don’t seem to be getting much better, leaving only the Ravens as AFC North competition. I believe the Steelers proved they could handle Baltimore this year, three different times.

Others: Colts (12/1) – Too many changes. Giants (10/1) – Who’s Eli throwing the ball to in ’09? Chargers (12/1) – Really? Has San Diego ever won anything?

Middle of the Pack:

Baltimore Ravens: I love this number for them (14/1), especially if they can keep their linebacking corps intact and get one more receiver for Flacco… Boldin? Plax? Their biggest priority has to be keeping Ray Lewis and/or Terrell Suggs from bolting as free agents (though I would love Suggs in New England). They pick late in the draft, so if they lose one of their marquis names, they might be able to get a decent replacement.

Carolina Panthers: I’m still not sure how they’re at 18/1 right now. I mean, if not for a complete mental meltdown by Jake Delhomme this past year, they were probably the most complete team in the NFC playoffs. In a recent e-mail chain with Sparty, I professed my love of the idea of Daunte Culpepper signing with Carolina (or Donovan McNabb getting traded there?) to replace Delhomme by midseason – seriously, can’t you see them just throwing the ball a mile and letting Steve Smith or Muhsin Muhammed run and get it?

Jacksonville Jaguars: They burned me last year – maybe I overrated them, maybe they underachieved, or maybe they’re really that bad. But at 25/1 odds, I don’t mind taking a chance one more time.

Others: Cardinals (30/1) – They couldn’t do it again, right? Packers (25/1) – somebody has to win the NFC North, maybe they can get hot late. Eagles (18/1) – Number seems high, until you remember Philly fans will never let Donovan McNabb be happy.

The Long Shots:

Buffalo Bills: At 30/1, they’re right about where whey should be. They came out both guns blazing in ’08… then promptly fizzled out to finish dead last in the division. I won’t be touching this line, but at a 30/1 return, they’d be nice to roll the dice with – especially if Brady isn’t 100% and the Jets bring back Favre.

Chicago Bears: For much the same reason as the Packers above – somebody’s got to win the NFC North, and I wouldn’t trust the Vikings to do it again (even at 25/1). The Bears still need to add a competent QB… McNabb? Cassell? Gulp… Favre?

Houston Texans: They have the unfortunate task of being in the toughest division in the NFL. I’d be absolutely shocked if they even make the playoffs in the next five years, but with 35/1 odds and an offense that includes Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, I just can’t count them out.

Others: Chiefs (100/1) – Watch how fast that number drops after they trade for Cassell and appease Larry Johnson. Browns (55/1) – No more Romeo… gotta count for something, right? Dolphins (35/1) – seems a little ridiculous for a team that won the AFC East this past season.

So, while I realize I just threw out more than half the NFL as prop bets, I can make your life a lot easier.

The Best Bets on the Board – Best chance to break-even or make money overall:

Patriots (8/1) – Steelers (9/1) – Giants (10/1) – Titans (16/1) – Falcons (25/1) – Bears (30/1) – Dolphins (35/1)

The Worst Bets on the Board – Best chance to waste your money on a team with no chance:

Cowboys (9/1) – Colts (12/1) – Eagles (18/1) – Saints (20/1) – Jets (25/1) – Bucs (30/1) – Cardinals (30/1)

Lata.

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About The Author

Big D is the Sparty & Friends resident gambling "expert". He lives in the northeast, supports any team whose name begins with "Boston" (except Boston College), and openly spars with other members of the S&F staff over the greatness of Michigan football.

Author Site : http://spartyandfriends.com

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