Being the college football junkie that I am, one of my favorite times of the year is just after the conference title games have been played (that’s almost a month after your team was finished, Big 10 guy). At this time of the year fans get to crank up the rumor mill and hope for their school to land the next Urban Meyer. With that having been said let’s take a look at the college football hot stove and what it means going forward. And as an added bonus I will peek into my crystal ball and drop some names of coaches who are sure to burning up on the hot seat next year.

Head coaches:

Notre Dame: This is obviously the big job opening of the season, and my Notre Dame friends should be thrilled at landing Brian Kelly. The mistake of Notre Dame the last three times it hired a coach was that it failed to get someone who had had a good bit of success as a head coach. Winning is all Kelly does. He won at Grand Valley State. He won at Central Michigan. He won at Cincinnati. All told, the man just wins. He’s Al Davis’ wet dream. Kelly will be somewhat of a hardass and he is cocky, but the difference between his cockiness and Charlie Weis’ was that Kelly knows how to be a head coach and Weis did not. It will take some time for Kelly as he will have to do something about the defense at Notre Dame, but the dude knows what he is doing. The key will be his choice of staff, but much of that has not been decided. Chance of success: 80% (success at ND is defined as consistent 9-win years in my opinion).

Florida State: Bobby Bowden is a legend in American sports. The man turned a girls’ school into a football powerhouse. Sadly, the ending it not nearly as good as the middle. The program has been dying for some time now and a change needed to be made. Insert coach-in-waiting Jimbo Fisher. The former offensive coordinator from LSU has had Free Shoe’s offense running smoothly, but the problem he now faces is getting the defense to play with any sense of desire. Fisher pilfered Mark Stoops away from his brother Mike to be the defensive coordinator in hopes of doing just that. There is so much talent in Florida that the state university has no business sucking to be honest. If Stoops can live up to his brother Bob’s name, look for Florida State to begin to reassert itself in the ACC sooner rather than later. The problem is how will Fisher, who’s never been a head coach, handle the outside aspects that come with the head job? Chance of success: 70% (his lack of head coaching experience is a concern).

Louisville: Bobby Petrino put Louisville football back on the map 5 years ago. Then he did what he does, and bolted. Steve Kragthorpe inherited a talented, yet undisciplined team. All he did was win four games a year. The Cardinals needed to get someone there who could put down some roots AND win and they got that in Charlie Strong. The former Florida defensive coordinator is one of the best defensive coaches in the country and he is a top recruiter. He has ties to Florida and he is located close to Georgia, a recruiting hotbed. The Big East is ripe for the taking so it is not out of the question to think that Louisville, with two years of solid recruiting classes and solid coaching under Strong, couldn’t make a run at the conference title. Chance of success: 65% (like Fisher, his lack of head coaching experience is a question mark).

Kansas: Mark Mangino was one of the best coaches the Jayhawks ever had. The problem was that he had only one season where he won more games than he lost inside the Big 12 conference (and that year he skipped Texas and Oklahoma). Then he went and emotionally ravaged his players. The Kansas AD set out to hire Mangino’s polar opposite and did so when he tabbed Turner Gill as the next head coach. Gill was the crazy man who took the Buffalo job 5 years ago and turned arguably the worst program in Division I into a MAC contender. His record is nothing to write home about (20-30) but winning 20 games and going to bowl games is an amazing feat at Buffalo. The problem Gill faces is that Kansas is always going to be a basketball school and there is not a natural recruiting base to stock talent around the area. Chances of success: 55% (Kansas is a hard place to win, but Gill does know how to be a leader).

Cincinnati: After Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame, the talk of the town in Cincy was about Houston coach Kevin Sumlin. Then he declined an interview and seemingly within a day or so Central Michigan’s Butch Jones was tabbed as the next coach. Jones has had great success with Dan LeFevour at quarterback (set the all time touchdown record) and he now gets his shot at Zach Collaros, the backup quarterback who set the world on fire when Tony Pike went down to injury. Cincy does lose some talent on offense and it will take a solid recruiting effort to make up for the loss of Mardy Gilyard, but Jones is a bright offensive mind, but the defense at Cincy was the issue this year. Chance of success: 55% (he has some success as a head coach, but it’s not he was dominate while at CMU; it all comes down to recruiting).

Memphis: Tommy West was fired after 9 years on the job at Memphis due to the program falling back into oblivion. Memphis is close to several top states in terms of talent, so the Tigers decided to get an ace recruiter as the head coach (this always worries me). They poked around in the SEC and landed former LSU running backs coach Larry Porter, the staff’s ace recruiter. Porter was a standout running back at Memphis from 1990-1993, so he has an intimate knowledge of the school and the surrounding area. In 2007 and 2009 Porter was named the recruiter of the year by Rivals.com. While I’m sure he will be able to land some talent that would have otherwise never looked at Memphis, I am a little skeptical as he has never been a head coach anywhere. To me he seems like someone who will come in and upgrade the talent, but fail to do much with it. He will essentially be Memphis’ version of Ed Orgeron. Chance of success: 40% (he just has the feel of an all-recruit, no-coach kind of hire).

Coordinators:

There are some top jobs this year in the coordinator field, but several have yet to be filled. Here is a list (with some candidates to think about) of some of the bigger schools shopping.

Florida, defensive coordinator: They tried to land Tyrone Nix from Ole Miss but failed. They spoke with reps from Bud Foster, but he leverage another school’s interest into a nice raise to stay at Virginia Tech. Dan McCartney is on staff with Florida and he could be elevated to the DC spot, but seeing as how they’ve already looked outside, you wonder if he will be considered.

Georgia, defensive coordinator: The Dawgs put out feelers to Foster from VT and he quickly used that attention to land himself some more cheddar. The apple of the dawgs’ eye at the moment is former star player and current Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. If they cannot land Smart, Manny Diaz of Middle Tennessee State is a name that keeps popping up.

Illinois, offensive coordinator: Ron Zook desperately needs to do well next year so he went out and landed Petrino!! Oh, it was just Bobby’s brother, Paul.

Look ahead to next year (in order of the job’s attractiveness):

Outside of Notre Dame, this off-season did not have too many big time jobs open. That may not be the case next year. Here is a list of some coaches who had better have a good real estate agent.

1: Rich Rodriguez, Michigan: Coaches need at least three years, but more like five to prove their worth. The problem is that few schools (and fewer fan bases) agree with me. If Michigan falls on its face again next year (say 5-6 wins) it will be hard for Rich Rod to hang on. The one caveat here is that I don’t know much about Michigan’s financial state, so buying Rodriguez out may be difficult. Potential replacement: Jim Harbaugh, Les Miles, Greg Schiano.

2: Mike Sherman, Texas A&M: Much like Rodriguez, Sherman has only been there two seasons, but he has not exactly won many fans over. His 6-6 record this year was an improvement, but another 6-6 season will most likely cost him his job. One of the reasons for this is that Tommy Tuberville is waiting in the wings to pounce on this job and if it is made clear that he will accept it, the fat cats at Texas A&M will gladly buy Sherman out to make room for Tubbs. Potential replacement: Tubs all the way.

3: Dabo Swinney, Clemson: This one may come as a surprise to some, but there is a large group of Clemson fans who did not like Dabo getting the gig to begin with. His team fared well this season, but they still lost 5 games in a very weak ACC. Now that CJ Spiller is gone, what will Clemson do for offense? If they fall flat (say 5 wins) you could see a quick trigger. Potential replacement: Randy Edsall (Uconn), Kirby Smart, Gus Malzahn (Auburn OC).

4: Dan Hawkins, Colorado: The Hawk was saved this year only because Colorado is desperate for money. Next year, however, his contract runs out and they could find a new coach for free. Unless the Buffs can make up some serious ground, Hawkins is almost sure to be replaced. Potential replacement: Kevin Sumlin (Houston), Randy Edsall.

5: Ron Zook, Illinois: The Illini has been atrocious after its 9-4 year when they were hammered by USC in the Rose Bowl. Zook has looked inept at times and downright pathetic at others, but the man can recruit so he has some talent. I would expect another awful season from Illinois (5-6 wins) and Zook will almost certainly get the pink slip. Potential replacements: Gus Malzahn, Kyle Wittingham (Utah HC).

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