There it is.  The annual Big D mid-season collapse week.  Usually it’s around Week Six; I was hoping it could be avoided this year.  I was wrong.  Week Nine saw a ridiculous TEN underdogs cover their lines, with six of them winning outright.  I mean, that’s just obscene.  I have to imagine all the big books in Vegas suffered an absolute bloodbath last weekend, since the American betting public loves an underdog.

Sadly, only two of the underdogs I took (Dolphins & Bengals) were among the group that covered, which helped lead me to a 3-10 week and back into the depths of mediocrity at 62-67-1.  Yeesh.

Oh, and a big ol’ “Thanks fer nuthin” F-U to the Giants for blowing a cover, a win, and my fantasy football week (I was playing against Rivers AND Jackson) with thirty seconds left in the game.  Awesome work guys.

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas, Delaware or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog are accurate as of the time this was typed – 2:30pm Wednesday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

I’ll be watching the Sunday games from Foxwoods, spending a weekend with my best friend watching the Pacquiao / Cotto fight and playing approximately thirty straight hours of poker.  So if if I throw a perfect week or an 0-fer out there, I probably won’t know until the Sunday Night Game when I get home and crash on the couch.

Bears (+3) over 49ERS: The 49ers are 1-3 against the spread at home this year, with the lone win coming as a 10-point favorite against the Rams in Week Four – not exactly the toughest of competition.  In the first Thursday Night game of the year, I’ll take the Bears and hope the Niners don’t finally wake up.

JETS (-7) over Jaguars: The Jets are the definition of mediocrity in the NFL in 2009.  They’re 4-4.  They’re 2-2 at home, 2-2 on the road.  They’re 4-4 against the spread; 2-2 at home, 2-2 on the road.  Luckily for them, the Jaguars can’t seem to win on the road or keep it close – they’re 1-3 away from Altell Stadium and have been outscored 109-56.

Broncos (-3.5) over REDSKINS: This is just what the Broncos need to get them back on track, a weak Washington team that’s already limping to the finish line.  Oh, and by the way – the Redskins have yet to cover ATS at home this year.  I like those odds.

Bengals (+7) over STEELERS: That’s a lot of respect for Pittsburgh, considering that Cincy already beat them once and swept the Ravens on the season.  Both teams are playing really good ball, but I think this is a three-point game either way.

Bills (+7) over TITANS: I’m not convinced Tennessee has completely figured it out yet.  Although I have to admit – if they haven’t, I’m really looking forward to the oddsmakers giving them too much respect for the next seven weeks.

Lions (+17) over VIKINGS: I refuse to give 17 points, in a divisional game, with no weather advantage, this late in the season.  Minnesota might win by forty, but I still wouldn’t feel confident giving up the points.

Saints (-14) over RAMS: The Saints haven’t won by more than 12 since beating the Giants by 21 a month ago.  Yet I feel strangely at peace with laying 14 points on the road.  By the way – if you have any Saints’ players in fantasy, this would be the week to make sure they’re in your lineup.

Falcons (-2) over PANTHERS: The Falcons haven’t looked like a playoff team since whupping the Niners in San Francisco in Week Five, but this should be the matchup that gets them back on the winning path.  Atlanta has a tough road the rest of the way, so they’ll need to make these “easy” games count.

Bucs (+10) over DOLPHINS: Miami is probably the second best team in the AFC East, and a borderline playoff contender right now.  But their defense still leaves something to be desired, and I think the Bucs can keep it close.

RAIDERS (-2) over Chiefs: Ugh.  Probably the worst game of the week.  I’ll take the team that has almost looked like a competent NFL team for most of the year over the one that has only looked half decent twice.  Raiders by six.  Sure, why not?

CARDINALS (-9) over Seahawks: The Cardinals are a risky bet right now – it’s all about which Kurt Warner shows up.  They don’t have a dependable enough running game to cover for Warner when he regresses to the player that kept the seat warm for Eli Manning for a season.  Seattle’s pass defense is mediocre enough that the Cards should be able to pass at will, assuming Warner remembers which uniform he’s supposed to be passing to.

CHARGERS over Eagles: This line is off most boards right now, and probably won’t be back up until about noon on Sunday.  Too many injury questions surrounding the teams to set an effective number.  It had been hovering around SD (-3), but that could go as high as SD (-7) if Brian Westbrook is out again, and might drop to a Pick-‘Em if he’s 100%.  I like the Chargers to win by about six, so do with that information what you will.

PACKERS (+3) over Cowboys: This might be the last week I trust the Packers or immediately dismiss the Cowboys based on “Good Romo / Bad Romo”.  Green Bay hasn’t beaten an above-average team at home yet this year; Dallas hadn’t won a big game on the road until last week.  Four wins in a row for the Cowboys are nice, but they haven’t exactly dropped four Super Bowl contenders (@KC, ATL, SEA, @PHI).

Patriots (+3) over COLTS: Game of the week, by far.  Until the past couple games, I would have take the Colts (-3) and headed straight to the bank.  But without an intact defensive backfield, Indy has looked pedestrian against two teams (Houston, SF) with far less offense than the Pats are going to throw at them (literally).  New England doesn’t shut teams down with the defensive intensity they had in the early and mid 00’s, but they’ve done enough in six of their eight games to win.  Even though they haven’t played a true “road” game since losing in Denver, I think they’ll do just enough to get the win in this one.

Ravens (-11) over BROWNS: Let’s see just how bad Brady Quinn can look, on National TV, against a defense that is out for blood; the Ravens’ D isn’t what it once was, they’re allowing an average of just under 20 points per game (19.25), but that number jumps to 24ppg when you discount their two best performances.  Luckily, one of those two performances was a 34-3 throttling of the Browns in Week Three.

And, just for the hell of it, and to make John feel better…

Fin.

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