I know you’ve all been waiting with baited breath for this post.  It’s been almost nine full months since last I was able to bring you my Weekly NFL Gambling advice; you know, if gambling were legal.  I couldn’t be happier to bring you all a little further down the rabbit hole and into the wonderful world of sweating out every single play of every single game.  Without further ado, let’s go make some money!

Disclaimer: (Yay!  The disclaimer is back!  God I’m suck a dork…) Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas, Delaware or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog are accurate as of the time this was typed – 5pm Wednesday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

STEELERS (-6.5) over Titans: I don’t really like the Titans’ chances this year.  They had some losses on the defense, the offense has looked terrible during the preseason, and they still are relying on Kerry Collins to stay healthy and lead the team.  The Steelers are as solid a team as there is in the NFL right now (excuse me while I vomit a little after writing that…) and they will be amped up for the home opener to raise a banner and get their rings.  Pittsburgh should win by 10+.

FALCONS (-4) over Dolphins: Here’s where week one of the NFL season is a moneymaker.  Oddsmakers are still influenced by the last thing they saw – Miami winning about four more games than they should have last year and Atlanta looking terrible in the playoffs.  Four points is a ridiculously low number – it shouldn’t be under seven and a half.

PANTHERS (+2) over Eagles: Philly’s season is going to go one of two ways; they will either be a completely dominant force and roll the entire NFC all year long (possible, but unlikely) or else they will limp through the season, struggle to overcome the loss of Jim Johnson, Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter, and integrate a lot of new pieces.  Carolina on the other hand was a strong team all year long in 2008 and if their defense can dominate games the way they did last year they should contend for a Wild Card at worst.

RAVENS (-13) over Chiefs: I have no confidence in this pick.  Lines this big in week one are usually a big, flashing “STAY AWAY” neon sign in the night.  Kansas City might not score ten points on Baltimore (especially with the news that Matt Cassel might not be ready for the game), but I’m not convinced the Ravens could score enough to cover 13 points.  I’ve flip-flopped this pick three times already and will probably do it three more before the game kicks off.

Broncos (+4) over BENGALS: I’m really surprised the Bengals are such big favorites – thought this would be one and a half or even less.  Both teams are terrible, there’s no denying that.  But Denver still has at least some semblance of a defense while Cincy might be the first time in a long time to allow 35+ ppg this year.

Vikings (-4.5) over BROWNS: Make no mistake about it – I think the Vikings will be a sub-par, at best, team this year.  However, the Browns don’t look like a 5-win team this year, and this is definitely not going to be one of those wins.

TEXANS (-5) over Jets: This might just be the season that the Texans can pull off 10-wins.  More importantly, in the beginning of the year they have three major offensive weapons – Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton – that are all healthy and ready to tear through a porous Jets defense.  I’m looking forward to seeing the fantasy stats that come out of this box score.

Jaguars (+7) over COLTS: It might just be a hunch, but I like the Jaguars to have a big season, and think the Colts are bordering on rebuilding mode in 2009.  Indy might not be the fun and gun they once were and it could be hard for them to cover big lines.  If this was in the three to five point range I’d be more likely to look at the Colts, but at seven, I’ll take my chances with the Jags.

Lions (+13.5) over SAINTS: Forget the spread – get on the over (49) as fast as you can!  They might put up 50 combined by the half!  Seriously though, there is no reason that a team with a defense as bad as New Orleans’ should ever be giving two touchdowns, even against a team on a 17-game losing streak.

Cowboys (-6) over BUCS: These two teams are enigmas to me this year.  Dallas is still just as talented as ever, plus they jettisoned their biggest problem from 2008.  Yet I just don’t feel confident about their overall chances.  The Bucs completely overhauled every possible aspect of their team, then began doing it again when they fired their offensive coordinator two weeks before the start of the season.  So… there’s really nothing to feel confident about there either.

49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS: This line is off the board right now, so don’t be surprised to see it at a much different number when/if it becomes available again.  The Niners are my surprise team this year, while I think the Cardinals are going to regress back to where they were pre-2008; a sub .500 team with an explosive offense and zero defense.

GIANTS (-6.5) over Redskins: Everybody is talking about the Giants’ lack of offensive weapons in 2009, but not enough is being made of the return of the best defensive line in football.  There’s no reason to think that Washington will be able to put up more than 17 points on the G-Men this week, and New York should be able to score just enough to cover this line.

SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Rams: Rams defense = bottom of the barrel.  Seahawks at home = nearly unbeatable.  Do I need to write any more?

Bears (+3.5) over PACKERS: I really like the Bears this year.  I think Jay Cutler has a lot to prove, and that he’ll step up and do it.  As for Green Bay, I can see them making a Wild Card push.  But their defense was pretty terrible in 2008 and didn’t do a whole lot to get any better for 2009.  When you can’t stop the other team, you can’t cover many spreads as a favorite.

Bills (+11) over PATRIOTS: This game won’t be close until the end with a couple garbage time scores to cover those eleven points, so I thought I’d give you an amazing stat.  On February 6^th, the Patriots were the 8/1 Odds-on Favorites to win the Super Bowl.  On June 17^th, after trading away Matt Cassell and Mike Vrabel, they dropped to 9/2 odds.  Strange, considering they lost a starting middle linebacker and the QB that saved any chance of a playoff run in 2008.  Today, after Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi have retired and Richard Seymour has been “traded”, the Patriots are 7/2 Favorites.  They keep losing players and their odds keep getting better.  At this point, if Tom Brady goes down in Week One I’d expect to see New England at about 1/1 to win it all.

Chargers (-9) over RAIDERS: How bad are the Raiders?  Players are now willing to sit out an entire year – in a contract year no less – than have to play for this team.  Why in the hell are they not 20-point underdogs in every game?

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