(EDIT: This preview was written early last week before a few tidbits of major breaking news.  That’ll make sense in a second…)

The AFC East hinges on one question, and one question only. “How healthy is Tom Brady?” I’m not just talking about his surgically repaired knee. I’m talking about Tom Brady in general. His knee is the obvious concern, but what about his shoulder, his other leg, etc.  The man wasn’t allowed to throw a football for almost a full year recovering from ACL/MCL reconstruction; it might not be just like jumping back on a bike.

As someone who has had his fair share of leg injuries, let me tell you – when you have a major injury to one leg, your other leg often suffers. You rely more on your healthy leg, adding more stress to it than normal. Brady likely had the best doctors and therapists in the world working with him, but that doesn’t mean that he’s in 100% perfect shape. Not to mention he’s had lingering shoulder injuries for years; will not throwing a ball for a year be helpful or harmful?

New England Patriots

Even with all the questions surrounding Brady’s health, the Patriots have to be the favorites to win the division. New England gave their own answer to the Brady questions when they traded away Matt Cassel to the Chiefs. Now their focus has to be on a still aging defense. Rodney Harrison was forced into retirement after yet another major knee injury. Tedy Bruschi isn’t getting any younger. Two of the centerpieces of the defensive line – Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork – have major contract issues on their minds.

Yet with all of that, one look at the Patriots’ schedule and any doubt of their AFC East supremacy is wiped away. They have the AFC/NFC South on their schedule this year, giving them home games against the Falcons, Titans, Panthers and Jaguars. Their only truly tough road test will be in Indy in Week 10.

Many people would shy away from predicting an undefeated regular season for a team coming off a non-playoff year with a starting QB recovering from major knee surgery (even though plenty of people predicted exactly that two years ago). I’m not going to put them at 16-0… but a 14-2 finish seems entirely plausible.

Miami Dolphins

Welcome back to relevance Miami! Amazing what a new coach, GM, QB, and complete system overhaul can do for a franchise. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, newfound success brings newfound perils. Like a stronger schedule. Or harder road games. And a big freaking target on your back.

Although Chad Pennington had a serviceable year in 2008 under center, there’s only so much he brings to a club. And much of it is in his mental game – the guy clearly understands how to get the most out of what little his body has left to give. Miami still has a solid defense, and bringing back Jason Taylor to anchor the D-Line for the rest of his career was a smart move. But until they figure out how to put more points on the board (They only broke the 28-point mark twice in 2008) they’re more likely to have a minor backslide to mediocrity than take the next step to Super Bowl contender. Prediction: 9-7, and a heart attack for PatPhish when he sees that picture above.

Buffalo Bills

They started out 4-0 in 2008 and then managed only three more wins the rest of the way. It is astounding to me that a guy like Dick Jauron is still employed in this division, yet Jon Gruden and Mike Shanahan – head coaches with Super Bowl rings! – are TV analysts right now. The Bills got the lucky draw of Cleveland and Kansas City as their “Rivalry” games (New England drew the Ravens and Broncos, Miami got San Diego and Pittsburgh, the Jets got Oakland and Cincy but the Jets suck), meaning Buffalo should get at least one free win out of the Browns and maybe a second with the Chiefs. Other than that… there aren’t too many other winnable games on the schedule.

Adding Terrell Owens isn’t going to fix all the problems with this team, although he should at least make the games more interesting. The Bills scored an average of 13.3 points in their nine losses last year, as opposed to 30.8 in their seven wins. I know, it’s a shocking statistic that says that scoring more points should lead to more wins! But even if they pick up the numbers a little bit, they’re in a tough division with a (mostly) brutal out of division schedule. Prediction: 7-9 for the fourth year in a row. Hey, at least they’re consistent.

New York Jets

New Head Coach. New Starting QB. New System. All leading up to a new stadium in 2010. But you know what? They’re the same old Jets.

New York has little-to-no running game. They have a rookie QB under center who may or may not be capable of running an NFL offense according to no less an authority than his former college coach. They have rebuilt their offensive line the past two offseasons focusing on aging former Pro Bowlers like Damien Woody and Alan Faneca.

On the defensive side of the ball, they allowed 22+ points in 2008, which sounds OK until you realize that they faced the offensive “juggernauts” in the AFC and NFC West last year. They brought in Rex Ryan from Baltimore to institute a Ravens’ type of defensive scheme. Well, the Bengals did the same with Marvin Lewis eight years ago and that hasn’t exactly paid dividends in Cincinnati.

The Jets will need two or three more years before they can return to a playoff contending team. Prediction: 5-11

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