We’ve already given you the AFC West, and then the NFC West.  Today, we head back to the American Football Conference, South division.  Interestingly (maybe only to me), I have a tie to three of the four teams in this division.  I grew up in Tennessee and didn’t really have an NFL team until two things happened in the same year (1998): the Indianapolis Colts drafted University of Tennessee star quarterback Peyton Manning and the Houston Oilers moved to Nashville to later become the Tennessee Titans.  I gained an immediate interest in both teams and became a hardcore Titans fan during their run to the Super Bowl in 1999.  What also happened in 1999?  Well, the Jaguars had a 3-loss season…losing all 3 games to my Titans.  That cemented a hate between the two young fanbases that still lingers today, especially for Jags fans.  Oh, and I now live in the Jacksonville-area so I’m bombarded with Jags paraphernalia.  As for Houston, well, I guess I’m a bit indifferent so far.

2008 AFC South Regular Season:
Tennessee Titans: 13-3 (4-2), Division Winner, Home Field Advantage
Indianapolis Colts: 12-4 (4-2), Wild Card Winner
Houston Texans: 8-8 (2-4)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11 (2-4)

The Titans were a bit of a surprise after the early benching of Vince Young for Kerry Collins and carrying the best record in the AFC into the playoffs.  On the contrary, the Jaguars were a huge disappointment after many analysts picked them to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  What does each team have to look forward to this year?  Let’s check ‘em out worst-to-first:

Jacksonville Jaguars: It doesn’t really appear that the Jags have done much to improve on last year’s underachieving performance.  There was a little bit of potential addition-by-subtraction with the release of headaches WR crack Matt Jones and WR Jerry Porter.  Replacing them is one of the most productive receivers in league history, Tory Holt (previously of the St. Louis Rams).  Many will argue that Holt’s best years may be behind him, which doesn’t really bode well for QB David Garrard.  The walking bowling ball sometimes known as RB Maurice Jones-Drew is all alone in the backfield this year since Fred Taylor has moved on.  Hopefully for Jones-Drew, the beefed up O-line will open up some holes with additions of OT Tra Thomas via free agency and OT’s Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton via the Draft (1st and 2nd rounds, respectively). 

As you can tell, most of the player movement was limited to the offense.  The defense was largely abused in all facets of the game last year.  This was considered a serious underachievement considering the talent in John Henderson and Reggie Hayward.  Much of the secondary is considered young and will likely continue to absorb the aerial abuse. 

Ruh roh, coach on hot seat!

Despite the fact that last year was the Jags’ first losing season since 2003, head coach Jack Del Rio has a somewhat warming seat.  But, even though there’s urgency to win, don’t expect the Jags to make much noise this season. 

Prediction: 6-10

Houston Texans: Since they entered the league, the Texans have been somewhat of a perennial loser.  They were chastised for picking DL Mario Williams first overall in the 2006 NFL Draft over Reggie Bush, but have since looked vindicated as Williams has steadily increased his production and leadership on the Texans defense.  Now, Williams is arguably the foundation of a defense that includes free agency newcomers DE Antonio Smith and DT Shaun Cody along with 1st round draft pick LB Brian Cushing.  The defense looks to be pretty good this year.  Now, the question is whether or not the offense is good enough to capitalize on the strength of the defense.

One of the best wideouts in the league has been hauling in passes for a few years now with the Texans, WR Andre Johnson.  Considering the prior makeup of the offensive skill positions, it’s probably more impressive that Johnson has performed so well.  Now, he may have some help on the outsides in Andre Davis and Kevin Walter and in the backfield with Steve Slaton and Chris Brown.  All of these guys will be dependent on one of three QB’s tossing/handing them the ball: Matt Schaub, Dan Orlovsky, or Rex Grossman.  Schaub is most likely the best of the bunch, but having a QB wearing a headset and holding a clipboard that has been to a Super Bowl will not ease up the pressure in Schaub struggles.

Ruh roh, looking for relevancy!

The Texans have the potential to put together a good season and a potential playoff run.  They open the season with 3 of 4 games at home and all of those home games are against teams with a new QB (Jets) or coming off of a bad season (Jags and Raiders).  Also, of the final 5 games, 3 of them are once again against teams who performed poorly last year (Jags, Seahawks, Rams).  It’s not inconceivable to see the Texans win 3 of the first 4 and 3 of the final 5 giving them 6 wins bookending the regular season.  A series split with the Titans and Colts along with wins over questionable teams in the middle of the schedule like the Bengals, 49ers, and Bills, and the Texans could be looking at an 11-win season.  But, it’s not gonna happen.

Prediction: 8-8

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are going to look like a new team with several of their leaders on and off of the gridiron gone.  WR Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning’s go-to-guy for basically Manning’s entire career is officially gone.  So is RB Dominic Rhodes.  Oh, and they also lost some dude named Tony Dungy that simply may have just led them to the top rung of the NFL food chain along with helping them acquire that minor little accolade known as a Super Bowl victory.  Dungy was a defensive minded head coach while his replacement, Jim Caldwell, is offensive minded.  The coaching change was planned out and most of the staff and schemes won’t change drastically.  Still though, team could look remarkably different on offense in 2009 than it has in any of the previous years with Harrison always threatening down the sideline and Dungy possibly holding the reins on his superstar QB.  WR’s Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez should aptly fill the hole Marvin Harrison has left while TE Dallas Clark will likely remain ol’ reliable for Manning.  A rookie receiver has recently caught Manning’s eye, Austin Collie from BYU.  Manning compared him to Brandon Stokely in his potential ability to be successful in working the slot and only the slot.  RB Joseph Addai doesn’t have any real competition in the backfield that could unseat him as the starter, but also doesn’t have a proven, viable backup to give him much of a breather or handle the workload in case of injury.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts still have stud DL’s Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis with DB Bob Sanders protecting the secondary.  There was a conscious effort for the D-line to get bigger this season.  Last year, there were only two DT’s on the roster that registered over 300 lbs (Antonio Johnson and Dainel Muir).  This season, all but one guy is over 300 lbs (Ed Johnson, 298 lbs). 

Ruh roh, new coach!

The changes for the Colts are basically the only aspect of their team that could not bode well.  But, the organization is stable and has a gifted player-coach on the offensive side of the ball on every snap in Peyton Manning.  The team should be able to absorb the coaching change from Dungy to Caldwell and transition fairly seamlessly while maybe adding a few new offensive wrinkles to Manning’s reportoire.  I expect the Colts to regain the division’s top spot by season’s end. 

Prediction: 13-3

Tennessee Titans: The Titans are coming off of an exceptional regular season.  Even as a fan of the team, I didn’t expect it in 2008…and I don’t expect a repeat performance this year.  There were times last season that it seemed the Titans were playing a little over their heads or maybe doing just enough on offense to ride the defense to victory.  The QB situation was a source of turmoil with their former top draft pick Vince Young imploding and veteran and assumed rest-of-his-career-backup Kerry Collins coming in and performing admirably.  In fact, Collins performed so well that there was basically no question as to whether he’d be the started coming into the 2009 season.  Now, the big QB question is whether VY can even hold onto the 2nd string spot or if Patrick Ramsey will overtake him and knock him down another peg…it’s entirely possible at this point.  The rest of the offense is at least as good as the 2008 version or better.  Rookie WR Kenny Britt will finally give Collins somebody to throw deep to while TE’s Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler will be available as safety valves ready to truck someone.  The most exciting aspect of the offense has to be the running game with RB’s Chris Johnson and LenDale White returning.  These guys were a great pair last year and should be even better this year, especially since White stopped drinking tequila and lost some weight.  Oh, and there’s this other rookie guy that’s currently third on the RB depth chart named Javon Ringer.  He may or may not have led the Big Ten in rushing last year and already be looking elusive on the field during the preseason. 

The defense lost a huge man, literally and figuratively, in Albert Haynesworth.  However, even though he had been a great defensive force for the Titans the past few seasons, the cost of keeping him was too great.  In return for not paying him the extraordinary sum that the Redskins ultimately agreed to, the Titans were able to sign and/or keep a bunch of guys in his place to add depth.  The defense is also returning stud DL’s Kyle Vanden Bosh and Jevon Kearse, LB Keith Bullock, and an ever-improving secondary in Chris Hope, Courtland Finnegan, and Chris Hope.  This Titans defense should once again be one of the best in the league.

Ruh roh, VY is a drama queen!

The Titans will not likely repeat the 13-3 season from last year.  The schedule is much tougher…the first 6 games include away at the Pittsburgh Steelers, home versus the Colts, and away at the New England Patriots.  Anything better than 3-3 in that stretch would be a great opening to the season.  Still though, I fully expect the Titans to carry a Wild Card spot into the playoffs.

Prediction: 11-5

Well, that’s probably it for me, regarding the AFC South at least.  Check back in with us later this week for the National Football Conference, South division preview, and feel free to click on the links at the top of the post to lastweek’s AFC West and NFC West division previews.

Mizerle06 is a senior writer, editor, and ocassional copy-editor here at Sparty & Friends.  You can reach him at mizerle06@gmail.com.

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