Over the next 30 “business days” I will be counting down my top 30 for the 2009 College Football season. After hours of studying game film, breaking down matchup by matchup and predicting upsets I’ve come up with the teams I believe will be the best 30 in the country by seasons end. Will your team be included? (Hint: If you prefer Tennessee, No.) I lay some Nole knowledge…

30. Iowa Hawkeyes
29. Oregon State Beavers
28. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
27. Nebraska Cornhuskers
26. Kansas Jayhawks
25. North Carolina Tarheels
24. USF Bulls
23. Michigan State Spartans
22. UCLA Bruins
21. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
20. FSU Seminoles

 The Story: Everyone is quick to predict a return to dominance for the Seminoles the last four or five seasons, but so far, that hasn’t panned out that way. Surprisingly, it has been since 2003 that a ten win season has graced this once powerful team, and a lot of the blame has been put on the offense. The tide has turned though, in year number two of the Jimbo Fisher “head-coach-in-waiting” era, the Noles had their highest offensive output since 2003. They even defeated Clemson and Wisconsin by throwing over 40 points on the scoreboard. NCAA issues aside, with a lot of youth rounding out their roster, this Seminole team could be very dangerous…and might even be “back.”

The Glaring Stat: 434. Points scored by the FSU offense, the most since 2003.

The Outlook:  Most people were not very high on the Noles last year because of one area...the relative youth of the offensive line. Boy were they wrong. These guys turned out to be a surprising unit thanks to coach Rick Trickett, who worked similar magic at West Virginia. Numbers wise, they return all five starters, and none of them are seniors. That being said Rodney Hudson, arguably the best guard in the country, will probably be a first rounder next April. Running back Jermaine Thomas might be the biggest beneficiary of this unit, where FSU is looking for the first 1000 yard rusher in quite some time.

Christian Ponder was another pleasant surprise for the Noles after taking the job from Drew Weatherford. Ponder has a wonderful set of legs that remind me a lot of USF quarterback Matt Grothe. Ponders ability to pass will be a big discussion heading into the fall though. He had five games last season where he completed less than 50% of his passes, and the Noles lost three of them. It’s imperative that he improve to keep opposing defenses honest.

Ponder lost a few targets, but FSU has a lot of talent at the receiver position. If Bert Reed can stay healthy I expect a huge year from him, he’s a smaller receiver with 4.4 40 speed. Also look for the taller Jarmon Fortson to get some looks closer to the endzone in a role that Greg Carr has played the last few seasons. The biggest question is sophomore Taiwan Easterling, who is recovering from a torn Achilles, if healthy he will most certainly be a go-to as the only returning starter.

FSU has to replace the pass rushers they lost after last season! Has to! Kevin McNeil and Markus White are both seniors with plenty of experience, but very little as starters. White has the accolades as a five star juco recruit in 2008, and did show flashes of brilliance when he was on the field last season. Don’t think for one minute that that’s where it stops, Demonte McAllister is a freshman that many coaches love. If either McNeil or White falter, the true freshman might get the nod to start at defensive end.

As usual the FSU linebacking corp is very good. They are led by the senior with a 26 inch waist, Dekoda Watson. He’s the type player that everyone would want on their team…a hard nosed feller who plays every part of defense well…run…pass…blitz. Everything. New to the corp is sophomore  Nigel Bradham, who many (inlcuding myself) consider the next great FSU linebacker, I have a feeling you’ll be hearing his name a lot more throughout the year.

The defensive backfield lost Myron Rolle to a Rhodes Scholarship study, but returns three senior starters. Included in that group is Patrick Robinson, a Gainesville native, and potential All-ACC candidate. As long as the defensive front can stay strong on the pass rush these guys should be ok. While not as flashy as FSU secondaries of the past, they do play well together.

I’d be at fault if I didn’t mention that FSU is replacing Graham Gano, a guy Bobby Bowden absolutely adored. Memo to James Esco and Shawn Powell…you got some shoes to fill.

The Schedule:
9-7-09 MIAMI FL (Mon.)
9-12-09 JACKSONVILLE STATE
9-19-09 at Brigham Young
9-26-09 SOUTH FLORIDA
10-3-09 at Boston College
10-10-09 GEORGIA TECH
10-22-09 at North Carolina (Thur.)
10-31-09 NORTH CAROLINA STATE
11-7-09 at Clemson
11-14-09 at Wake Forest
11-21-09 MARYLAND
11-28-09 at Florida

FCS ALERT! But with a schedule like this, you’re excused FSU. They return to opening with Miami, a game I love, but hate in week one. The game at BYU will be very tough, Provo is a place that few visiting teams leave victoriously, and the Cougars could finish the year the top ten nationally. USF is a solid Big East team and there is a good chance they will be ranked coming in. Finally, going to the Swamp in Tim Tebow’s final home game will definitly be a tall task.

Every team on their conference schedule played in a bowl last season. So for the record, the Noles play eleven teams that were bowl eligible in their twelve games…More than likely, the hardest schedule in the country.

Wait for it…wait for it…deja vu comment! Seriously though ten teams in the final top 25 last season finished with 4 losses. Man, if the schedule weren’t so brutal I’d really like FSU’s chances to be a ten win team. That being said, this team is my pick to win the ACC Atlantic and return to the ACC Championship game for the first time since 2005.

GatorTrey is a contributor to SpartyandFriends.com and can be reached at GatorTrey (at) spartyandfriends.com and can also be reached on twitter @jflynn05

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