Over the next 30 “business days” I will be counting down my top 30 for the 2009 College Football season. After hours of studying game film, breaking down matchup by matchup and predicting upsets I’ve come up with the teams I believe will be the best 30 in the country by seasons end. Will your team be included? (Hint: If you prefer Tennessee, No.) We Sparty on with the namesake of this site…

30. Iowa Hawkeyes
29. Oregon State Beavers
28. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
27. Nebraska Cornhuskers
26. Kansas Jayhawks
25. North Carolina Tarheels
24. USF Bulls
23. Michigan State Spartans

The Story: What is Michigan State? Are they a superpower in waiting? Are they a mid level Big 10 team? Or are they just one of those programs that will forever fluctuate between great seasons and disappointing sub .500 years? Hard to tell at this point, but they certainly hired the right guy to clean up the program. Mark Dantonio is a disciplined coach, who focuses on the fundamentals and minute details that have been ignored at Michigan State since Nick Saban left for LSU in 2000. In other words, he’s the COMPLETE opposite of goofy ol’ John L. Smith. The Spartans went 9-4 last season, winning the games they should win and losing the games they were expected to. If the last two seasons are an indication of the future, they only stand to get better from here.

The Glaring Stat: 35%. Michigan State’s terrible third down conversion percentage last season.

The Outlook: Dantonio is a defensive guru and the perfect Big 10 guy. However, he took over a program that was far from from it. During his tenure John L. Smith ran an unconventional 4-2-5 defense that focused more on attacking with speed, rather than power. As a result he recruited to fill that scheme, leaving depth at the linebacking position short. Finally, in his third season, Dantonio can probably say he has a group of linebackers that fit his style of play.

That all begins with Greg Jones, the All American candidate who is arguably one of the best linebackers in the country. As a versatile player-maker Jones will be moved around all three linebacking positions to put him in a place to best play the ball. Simply put, this guy is an absolute stud. His running mate, All-Big 10 linebacker Eric Gordon, is no slouch himself.

The secondary was riddled with injuries last year, in fact there are eight players returning to campus that started at some point last season. So long as the injury bug doesn’t strike the Spartans again, should have a little more consistency (and better play).

On offense, who replaces Javon Ringer? That’s an excellent question. There are a few guys that could end up there, Andre Anderson, senior A.J. Jimmerson, Ashton Leggett, but most people believe the job will belong to freshman Edwin Baker by mid-season. Last season, the Michigan State running attack, despite all of Ringer’s accolades, was only 9th in the Big 10. Of course this came as a result of teams throwing eight in the box and putting it squarely on the shoulders of Brian Hoyer to move the ball in the air…the Spartans return a pretty good combo of wide receivers in Mark Dell and former walk-on Blair White, but don’t return Hoyer (which is a good thing). Dell is a guy that will be playing on Sundays in his future.

At quarterback, Michigan State has two guys battling for the starter’s spot. Kirk Cousins is a traditional pocket passer, while Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol is more of a mobile spread quarterback. Nichol could be an absolute stud, and will probably win the position, it just falls on whether Dantonio is willing to be a little less conservative on offense. In fact, Michigan State coaches have already added elements of the spread option to the offense in anticipation of his arrival. That being said, this is a position battle that likely won’t be decided until the season starts, if then.

Whoever is starting will have the advantage of an excellent line that is led by All-American candidate Joel Nitchman, so long as the right side can hold, the Spartans should have no problems here.

The Schedule:
9-5-09 MONTANA STATE
9-12-09 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
9-19-09 at Notre Dame
9-26-09 at Wisconsin
10-3-09 MICHIGAN
10-10-09 at Illinois
10-17-09 NORTHWESTERN
10-24-09 IOWA
10-31-09 at Minnesota
11-7-09 WESTERN MICHIGAN
11-14-09 at Purdue
11-21-09 PENN STATE

FCS Alert!  Michigan State plays Montana State, becoming the last FBS team to finally schedule a FCS opponent. The Spartans have challenged themselves with a couple tough non-BCS opponents, both Directional Michigans have been to bowl games the last two seasons and figure to be  in the thick of the MAC race again. Out of conference their biggest game is at rival Notre Dame, and despite what a certain Spartan fan says, the game will be pretty tough. Sparty Note: It will not doubt be tough, but we are still beating them, because that is what we do in South Bend.

In conference the Spartans are going to have some tough road tests at Wisconsin and Illinois. While Wisconsin will be down, the Badgers are always tough at home, especially when their student section is chucking batteries at opposing players. The good news? No Ohio State and they get Penn State at home.

Wait for it…wait for it…deja vu comment! Seriously though ten teams in the final top 25 last season finished with 4 losses. So at 23rd in the country, 8-4 is a perfectly legitimate prediction. Michigan State has several tough road tests, three with in a four week period in late September/early October. If they get through that with only one loss a BCS bowl is an outside possibility. Even with Penn State at home, I don’t see the Spartans pulling the upset off at this point. Regardless, this core of players could be the making of a top 15 team and a serious Big 10 contender next year.

GatorTrey is a contributor to SpartyandFriends.com and can be reached at GatorTrey (at) spartyandfriends.com and can also be reached on twitter @jflynn05

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