Wow…as much as we all wanted to get baseball here…we sure as hell didn’t embrace it like we did last year. Of course I cant really say it with any degree of certainty since I didn’t sign on here at S&F until August last year. Just before College Football, the NFL, and while the MLB playoff and wild card chases were in full effect. Guess what kids…We are in the final few days of July…and that glorious time of the year is upon us again. I thought I would take a minute to analyze the MLB postseason chase and to get our commenters input before I head out for the weekend.
The fellas at Cool Standings make the job pretty easy to do. I just wanna know if you agree with them…the science part I mean
2009 AL Standings  What are these? |
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| East | W | L | PCT | GB | RS | RA | EXPW | EXPL | DIV | WC | POFF |
| New York | 57 | 37 | .606 | - | 518 | 449 | 94.6 | 67.4 | 45.1 | 26.9 | 72.0 |
| Boston | 55 | 39 | .585 | 2 | 478 | 403 | 93.3 | 68.7 | 37.6 | 27.7 | 65.4 |
| Tampa Bay | 52 | 43 | .547 | 5.5 | 501 | 422 | 89.2 | 72.8 | 16.3 | 20.8 | 37.1 |
| Toronto | 47 | 48 | .495 | 10.5 | 458 | 421 | 79.5 | 82.5 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.6 |
| Baltimore | 41 | 53 | .436 | 16 | 438 | 498 | 70.8 | 91.2 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Central | W | L | PCT | GB | RS | RA | EXPW | EXPL | DIV | WC | POFF |
| Detroit | 49 | 43 | .533 | - | 433 | 404 | 86.6 | 75.4 | 49.2 | 1.5 | 50.8 |
| Chicago | 49 | 45 | .521 | 1 | 435 | 435 | 82.8 | 79.2 | 23.8 | 1.4 | 25.2 |
| Minnesota | 48 | 47 | .505 | 2.5 | 461 | 444 | 83.4 | 78.6 | 26.7 | 1.2 | 27.9 |
| Kansas City | 37 | 56 | .398 | 12.5 | 365 | 458 | 63.6 | 98.4 | <0.1 | 0.0 | <0.1 |
| Cleveland | 37 | 58 | .389 | 13.5 | 469 | 524 | 67.3 | 94.7 | 0.2 | <0.1 | 0.2 |
| West | W | L | PCT | GB | RS | RA | EXPW | EXPL | DIV | WC | POFF |
| Los Angeles | 54 | 38 | .587 | - | 500 | 451 | 92.7 | 69.3 | 65.3 | 6.3 | 71.5 |
| Texas | 52 | 41 | .559 | 2.5 | 452 | 414 | 87.5 | 74.5 | 27.1 | 8.1 | 35.2 |
| Seattle | 50 | 44 | .532 | 5 | 372 | 386 | 82.2 | 79.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 10.6 |
| Oakland | 40 | 53 | .430 | 14.5 | 408 | 439 | 72.1 | 89.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| < Previous Day |
| 2009 NL Standings | |||||||||||
| East | W | L | PCT | GB | RS | RA | EXPW | EXPL | DIV | WC | POFF |
| Philadelphia | 53 | 39 | .576 | - | 494 | 429 | 92.5 | 69.5 | 68.5 | 5.3 | 73.7 |
| Atlanta | 49 | 46 | .516 | 5.5 | 420 | 394 | 86.0 | 76.0 | 21.3 | 8.0 | 29.3 |
| Florida | 49 | 47 | .510 | 6 | 431 | 447 | 82.6 | 79.4 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 13.9 |
| New York | 44 | 50 | .468 | 10 | 391 | 441 | 74.8 | 87.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Washington | 28 | 66 | .298 | 26 | 401 | 522 | 54.8 | 107.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Central | W | L | PCT | GB | RS | RA | EXPW | EXPL | DIV | WC | POFF |
| St. Louis | 51 | 46 | .526 | - | 424 | 399 | 84.9 | 77.1 | 30.5 | 2.7 | 33.2 |
| Houston | 49 | 46 | .516 | 1 | 402 | 419 | 82.6 | 79.4 | 19.3 | 1.9 | 21.2 |
| Chicago | 48 | 45 | .516 | 1 | 393 | 383 | 84.4 | 77.6 | 27.8 | 2.7 | 30.4 |
| Milwaukee | 48 | 47 | .505 | 2 | 442 | 448 | 82.2 | 79.8 | 17.8 | 1.7 | 19.5 |
| Cincinnati | 44 | 49 | .473 | 5 | 380 | 441 | 73.7 | 88.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 42 | 52 | .447 | 7.5 | 397 | 404 | 76.3 | 85.7 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 3.5 |
| West | W | L | PCT | GB | RS | RA | EXPW | EXPL | DIV | WC | POFF |
| Los Angeles | 60 | 34 | .638 | - | 472 | 362 | 100.9 | 61.1 | 86.3 | 10.0 | 96.3 |
| Colorado | 52 | 43 | .547 | 8.5 | 483 | 428 | 90.4 | 71.6 | 9.9 | 44.4 | 54.3 |
| San Francisco | 50 | 44 | .532 | 10 | 379 | 354 | 85.5 | 76.5 | 3.7 | 17.8 | 21.6 |
| Arizona | 40 | 55 | .421 | 20.5 | 416 | 463 | 70.8 | 91.2 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| San Diego | 37 | 58 | .389 | 23.5 | 346 | 477 | 62.1 | 99.9 | 0.0 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| Baseball statistics |
| x: Clinched Division y: Clinched Wild card W: Wins L: Losses PCT: Winning percentage GB: Games Back (Number of games behind the Division leader) RS: Runs Scored RA: Runs Against |
| Baseball “coolstats” What are these? |
| EXP W: Expected season Wins EXP L: Expected season Losses DIV: % chance of winning the Division WC: % chance of winning the Wild Card POFF: % chance of making the Playoffs |
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Wow…NY Mets at 1.4% chance at making the playoffs? Someone needs to lose their job there.
According to these scientific predictions there are really just two races left in baseball. Who will win the AL East and who will win the NL Central…this despite many teams being just a few games back of their respective division leads. How does this make the White Sox and Twins feel? Texas…they were never really supposed to contend, but they are only 2.5 back…and only 2.5 behind Boston for the Wild Card. Chicago, Houston, both one back…is Milwaukee done? Colorado is the Wild Card Favorite right now in the NL?
I gotta think with 68+ games left for most teams it is a bit early to call….what do you think?
My fearless predictions as of July 22…subject to change on a whim or if you convince me otherwise…
AL EAST – New York Yankees
AL CENTRAL – Minnesota Twins
AL WEST – LA/Anaheim Angels
WILD CARD – Boston Red Sox
NL EAST – Philadelphia Phillies
NL CENTRAL – Chicago Cubs
NL WEST – Los Angeles Dodgers
WILD CARD – San Francisco Giants
AL DIVISION ROUND
New York > Minnesota
Boston > Anaheim
NL DIVISION ROUND
Chicago > Los Angeles
Philadelphia > San Francisco
ALCS
New York > Boston
NLCS
Philadelphia > Chicago
WORLD SERIES
New York > Philadelphia
I will revisit the whole thing again around August 17th when the season is 75% done…then we all can join in and be a little less fearless
Popularity: 2% [?]
Wishful thinking, Mikey. We’ll settle this next month at Chavez Ravine.
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Boooooooooo
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PDH – Public Display of Homerism.
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twins pitching is meh. no way they win the central.
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The Mets have had a lot of injuries. It’s no wonder why they’re sinking fast.
I’m shocked that the Phillies only have a 68.5% chance to win the division. That number really should be around 80%
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…and if they get Halladay the number should be 100%.
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I think Baltimore’s odds are overstated.
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wow…to the powers that be…thanks for the whole half hour of post time on this one….makes all the effort worth it
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the cubs will win the nl central…they havent done anything offensively yet…
there is a reason that it is called an “average” in baseball…it will all level out at the end…cubs are primed for a huge second half
/ctrl + p
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nope, 3 straight division titles for the cubbies would be a sure sign of the apocalypse.
not looking good, that’s for sure. too inconsistent all around right now…but we’ll keep fighting
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once they let all that pitching go last year…you know the offense could only take the brewers so far
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This is not a “scientific” prediction. It is a statistical prediction based upon the season so far. It doesn’t take into account someone coming back from suspension (Manny Ramirez), someone breaking out of a terrible slump (Ortiz), someone pitching like the greatest pitcher in history for a while and then not (Greinke).
Basically there are the human factors involved which of course include injuries. So the stats are a pretty good indication of each team’s chance of success. The Mets are done. They are not coming back from being 10 games down.
I am really interested to see the Red Sox – Yankees games for the simple reason that the Yanks are a MUCH better team against the rest of the league than the Sox but of course the Sox are 8-0 against the Yanks. Was that just a first half aberration or do the Sox really just have the Yankees number this year? Should be fun.
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O’s suck, they should do some stuff at the deadline.
/Tease’d
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Trade their owner?
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ive always been a fan of cool standings dot com….it is fun to see what the statisitcal chances are of each team…especially these teams that are within striking distance to have such little chance…espn is ballyhooing the astros who are tied with the cubs for 2nd in NLC but have an 8% less chance to win the division
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cbh- is that your theme for 7IS?
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I like to think that the cubbies will win the central too but man i didn’t have a good feeling about this team before the season started (i think they overreacted to the way it ended last year) and nothing that they have done has made me feel any better about this year
Sometimes i hate being a cubs fan
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the impact of derosa leaving will haunt this team….no edmonds hurts too…bradley was a terrible signing
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and i believe i just saw that bradley played in enough games now to vest a pretty pricey option for 2011
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i dont think the twins win the central as much as i think the white sox and tigers lose it
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I hated to see Derosa leave. I was okay with Edmonds leaving. I hated adding Bradley. Just an idiotic signing. Yeah let’s add a DH to an NL club hoping he can stay on the field and provide some semblance of outfield defense. Oh he’s also a crazy person. That makes even more sense to put him on a team under pressure to win with a crazy person to lead the pitching staff and a manager who will be hard on him.
About the only thing that hasn’t happened yet this season was Zambrano and Bradley getting in a fist fight
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He did. It was a joke of a clause. Why not just give him the extra year if they’re going to make it vest at 75 or so games
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tigers are good as long as they don’t play the yanks
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bobby abreu woulda been the ideal add in the off season….but hell – the way bradley has played….i would take adam dunn in a heartbeat right now
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awwww…my heart is melting…we are all having a meaningful baseball discussion….it only took 97 games
/saracsm’d
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that’s more like it
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I would have taken a bag of balls, I hated this signing so much and it just feels worse and worse each day
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/NTTATWT
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/crabby Red Sox fan’d
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/or the cubs being in contention again’d?
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LET’S GO METS!!
/unrealistic’d
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Haha, that would be a nice start.
Sorry for the delay in my response. Got to leave work early as our building had to be evacuated due to some sort of power issues. To answer your question yes.
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unless the twins grow some balls and make some moves I’m afraid they are not in the picture. I love em and all but punto? yuck!!! casilla? ish!!!! and we need a pitcher to step up and be the ace. no takers though. Also, Bosox and yankees in the alcs? come on. grow a set. I think we’ve seen that prediction for the last how many years? go out on a limb. I predict Twins vs. Cardinals for the crown.( if the twins make a move that is)
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