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June 25, 2009

Studs and Duds: The GITC Prospect Prediction Edition 2009

By guyinthecorner

sad-logoHere is the post I promised about what I think about the futures of some of this year’s NBA prospects. If the guy you’re looking for’s name isn’t there it means that I’m fairly middle of the pack on him and have nothing to really note about him. Hopefully this helps you figure out who it is that you want your team to pick up tonight. Enjoy.

Blake Griffin – One of the few surefire NBA stars in this draft, Griffin has the physical tools to do anything he wants. His strengths include ball-handling, running the floor, finishing at the rim, strength, and quickness. His two weaknesses are defense and post moves. His defensive shortcomings aren’t his fault as Oklahoma encouraged him to be hands off so that he never got into foul trouble and guaranteed them a loss. He could learn this in the NBA. Post moves are a little different. He basically needs to go to Tim Duncan School. That quickness he has won’t be there in the long run and he knows that. He must develop some moves or learn a better jump a la KG.

Ricky Rubio – Where to start? My favorite player in this draft. He won the Defensive Player of the Year in the Spanish ACB (2nd best league in the world, more defensive than the NBA) this season at age 18. As a 17 year old, he started the gold medal game in the Olympics against the U.S., got hurt in the first half, and still played a good game against CP3 and D-Will. His passing skills are off the charts. He may already be one of the best passers in the history of basketball. Can he drive and score against the quickness on defense in the NBA? Probably. The myth about his lack of jump shot is going away as he shot 43% on threes this year in Spain. His jumper still needs work on range though. I may move to wherever he’s drafted.

Tyreke Evans – One of these players who is said to be in this great class of point guards. Newsflash: he won’t play the point in the NBA. He doesn’t have the passing ability or the leadership to run an NBA team. Good news for him: he’s 6”6 with a 6”11 wingspan. This will allow him to play the two very well. There are serious doubts about his attitude, coachability, and defense. I’ve been watching him since high school and the dude is a cold-blooded scorer. There are lots of those in the NBA though.

Stephen Curry – One of the other guys who is guaranteed an NBA career. Curry’s passing skills are underrated by almost everyone. The guy can really dish it out. He handles pretty well and is used to high pressure defensive situations because of what teams did to him for the last three years. He has one thing that almost no other prospect has ever had: an NBA ability to create space for his jumper. Every player needs to learn this once they get there, he’s already got it. The major question for him is how much of a defensive liability is he immediately and in the long run. Can he learn how to stay in front of NBA offenses? We’ll see.

Hasheem Thabeet – If I were to pick him for my team it would have to be in the 18-22 range. The guy just doesn’t appear to have the skills to play in the NBA. What do you mean he couldn’t learn to score in college despite being 7”3? What do you mean he has trouble guarding strength? He can’t dribble or shoot or slide his feet? He’s Dwight Howard with no handle, athleticism, strength, speed, and even less offense? So… he’s a serviceable one-on-one defender who is a great weak-side defender. Yay. Let’s take him #2.

Brandon Jennings – For those who didn’t watch some his games in Europe, I’ll tell you what he’s like. He’s like Allen Iverson with his quick step, low crossover, scoring in traffic, and that skill set. He tends to use those skills to get in the lane and destroy your defense before passing to an open man. If he had played at Arizona, he would have averaged 18-22 points and 8-11 assists. He’s a pretty good defender and a decent rebounder. His biggest plus is that he has already played a season against men. He’s a great kid with a ton of heart and ambition. If I were to make predictions about guys’ futures, I would say he has the 3rd or 4th best guaranteed future (after Griffin/Rubio, before/after Curry).

Johnny Flynn – I think people need to remember that even though he’s 5”11, Johnny Flynn is the owner of a 40 inch vertical. He’s probably going to be a good NBA player, but needs to step up his defense.

James Harden – I’m not exactly sure where he fits in on what team. He’s got some great skills but isn’t very athletic, doesn’t have a lot of quickness, and his size is not his strength. I think he might be destined to be a really good sixth man.

DeMar Derozan – Not for the faint of heart. Great potential or great potential to fall off the face of the earth in two years? Nobody has any idea.

Jrue Holiday – Same as Derozan except that he has defense to fall back on which is always helpful for a prospect. He has character issues that might hurt him though.

Earl Clark – The next Lamar Odom. He is Lamar Odom. They are the same person. The only difference is that he could potentially gain other skills.

Ty Lawson – I don’t buy for a second the idea that he won’t be effective in the NBA. He’s like Aaron Brooks but he was better in college. Does he need to extend his range? Sure. But that doesn’t mean that he won’t.

B.J. Mullens – He could be a steal if he falls far enough. If you looked at a draft board 11 months ago he was the #2 pick behind Rubio and before Griffin. He didn’t do well in college, but it’s not like they were injuries like Oden. He has physical gifts that can’t be taught.

Sam Young – This is who you take if you want someone to play right now.

Omri Casspi – He’s the toughest player in the draft and the Blazers traded two 2nd round picks to the Mavericks to move up two spots because they got suspicious of the team in front of them taking him. Now there are rumors of him going as high as #16 to the Bulls if there’s a run on toughness that takes Blair and Johnson off the board. I love this guy. And it’s not just that he’s a Jew.

Eric Maynor – The guy has enough sleeper talk to kill his actual sleeperness. He’s still going to be a good player. I could easily see him starting for a bunch of teams in a few years.

Jeff Teague – The Kings will likely take him at #23 and that would be a steal. He was my ACC Player of the Year last season and he was unguardable and is a decent defender. I’m not even sure how he fell this far.

Patty Mills – He will be effective in the NBA. He was a great college player and gained experience starting for the Australian Olympic team in 2008. He may turn more pass-first in the NBA, but I’m not sure that’s a terrible thing. He made St. Mary’s a great team. Surely, playing with some NBA guys will work as well.

Victor Claver – This guy is my sleeper. He’s from Spain and is border 1st/2nd round. He’s 6”9 and might be a great NBA small forward.

Danny Green, Jodie Meeks, Jack McClinton – My 2nd round sleepers.

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About The Author

Guyinthecorner is an author here at spartyandfriends.com. He writes the NBA section, X-Games section, and contributes to College Basketball and MLB. He doesn’t watch hockey except when the circumstances are dire. He’s not sure how to rate Michael Phelps on the scale of athletes not only because he doesn’t directly compete against people, but because he is a fish. He doesn’t understand the hate for the 2002 National Champion Maryland Terrapins and wishes everybody would just shut up by now. He is known for having statistical formulas and might be Bill James or Joe Lunardi depending on who you ask. His identity is as hidden as many times over as the number of internet memes he employs in his comments. Some have called him “The Riddler.” He can be reached at gitc@spartyandfriends.com. “GITC” is an acronym for guyinthecorner in case you aren’t that perceptive.

35 Comments

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  • cbh49er says:

    Crap I forgot all about Danny Green being in the draft, can’t wait to see all of those Carolina guys drafted tonight.  

    (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    I dn’t buy the Rubio hype. He’s a slower version of Nick Calathes…I loved Calathes for the Gators, but he’s way too slow to sustain long term NBA success…Rubio is slower.  

    (Quote)

  • JRod says:

    If the T-Wolves land Rubio and Curry I may be interested in the NBA again.  

    (Quote)

  • john says:

    His passing skills are off the charts. He may already be one of the best passers in the history of basketball.

    Eeeeeeeasy there. Lets wait a year or twelve before we start calling him one of the best anything.  

    (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    john:

    Eeeeeeeasy there. Lets wait a year or twelve before we start calling him one of the best anything.

    Bob Cousy
    Oscar Robertson
    Magic Johnson
    John Stockton
    Ricky Rubio

    Duh?!  

    (Quote)

  • knightro says:

    I have correctly predicted the NBA first round draft order the past 12 years in a row

    /I think you know  

    (Quote)

  • sae says:

    Pierce >

    GatorTrey:
    Bob Cousy
    Oscar Robertson
    Magic Johnson
    John Stockton
    Ricky Rubio
    Duh?!

    /john’d  

    (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    listen!!! mike dunleavy is going to win coach of the year!!!  

    (Quote)

  • No way on Stephen Curry praise. I can’t stand the NBA pre-draft workouts being treated like the NFL combine…especially from a four year starter at a Southern Conference school like Curry.

    He’s like a mix of Jason Terry and Ben Gordon…but all their bad qualities. I see him on a bench in the next 3-4 seasons. But he’ll get his shot.

    How can you rate his passing ability so high when he was the one receiving the passes in college a hoisting up 25-30 shots a game?  

    (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    Souvenir City:

    No way on Stephen Curry praise. I can’t stand the NBA pre-draft workouts being treated like the NFL combine…especially from a four year starter at a Southern Conference school like Curry.

    He’s like a mix of Jason Terry and Ben Gordon…but all their bad qualities. I see him on a bench in the next 3-4 seasons. But he’ll get his shot.

    How can you rate his passing ability so high when he was the one receiving the passes in college a hoisting up 25-30 shots a game?

    I kinda agree. I think the kid has a nice skill set, but whether it’s NBA quality or not is to be determined. Had the hype not been there he’d be more of a late 1st early 2nd pick.

    But a team like the Knicks might put him in the right position. Look how Nate Robinson’s height has been negated by the fast break.  

    (Quote)

  • Johnny says:

    What about Psycho T?  

    (Quote)

  • I’m going through and reading all the comments so that I can get up on the /name’isms.

    Sparty – Idea for a post. I think a lot of us read the same segment of blogs. How about a dictionary / index of those? You could run a post for days on that.  

    (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    Eric Maynor is going to be a beast.  

    (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    Spanish ACB (2nd best league in the world, more defensive than the NBA)

    Just saw this…more defensive than the NBA? Ehhh…Lets put the Thunder in that league and see who plays the best defense  

    (Quote)

  • guyinthecorner says:

    As far as Rubio goes, I’m not the only one that thinks that his passing skills are that good. Chad Ford said this week that his passing skills are being compared to Magic, Bird, and Pistol Pete. Not his potential passing ability. His passing ability.

    To say that the hype on Rubio is just that is crazy. If you’ve seen him play you know he’s the real deal.

    As far as Curry goes, he played point guard this year at Davidson and did it so well that there was one of those Knight School segments and Bobby Knight showed a bunch of his plays and said that he might be a top five passer in the NCAA. I’m going to go with the proof showed to me by the all time wins leader.  

    (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    Stephen Curry = Craig Hodges  

    (Quote)

  • guyinthecorner says:

    Trey-

    I meant that it’s a more defensive league not a better defensive league. They focus more on defense, it doesn’t mean they are better at it. They are damn good though.  

    (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    Sparty – Idea for a post. I think a lot of us read the same segment of blogs. How about a dictionary / index of those? You could run a post for days on that.

    interesting thought.  

    (Quote)

  • guyinthecorner says:

    Wow. I had the Cavs as the favorite in the East after the Shaq trade, but if the Magic start Nelson, Carter, Turoglu, Lewis, Howard, that’s taking over. They wouldn’t have a bench, but who cares at that point.  

    (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    guyinthecorner:

    As far as Rubio goes, I’m not the only one that thinks that his passing skills are that good. Chad Ford said this week that his passing skills are being compared to Magic, Bird, and Pistol Pete. Not his potential passing ability. His passing ability.

    To say that the hype on Rubio is just that is crazy. If you’ve seen him play you know he’s the real deal.

    I’ve seen Rubio play, the problem is the camera moves too fast to keep up with him.

    Seriously though. He’s Nick Calathes with a lot more hype. Had Calathes gone straight to the NBA he’d be a lottery pick.

    Instead (because he had to) he went to college for two years and ws exposed as being a great passer but a slow dribbler and defender. While he is still a late 1st pick, it’s mostly due to the fact that this draft blows.  

    (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    guyinthecorner:

    Wow. I had the Cavs as the favorite in the East after the Shaq trade, but if the Magic start Nelson, Carter, Turoglu, Lewis, Howard, that’s taking over. They wouldn’t have a bench, but who cares at that point.

    What?  

    (Quote)

  • guyinthecorner says:

    Trey-

    I’m not sure what I want to carve your Calathes/Rubio analogies into. I’m thinking the surface of the moon for permanency.

    But seriously, please tell me you’re joking. Rubio’s defense, ball handling, and passing are better than Calathes by miles. Rubio is actually quick, just not fast, Calathes is a statue. Rubio might not be a great athlete but he’s still better than Calathes.

    Calathes has a jump shot though.  

    (Quote)

  • guyinthecorner says:

    Trade talks – Vince Carter for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, and tony Battie.  

    (Quote)

  • guyinthecorner says:

    Rumors now saying that the Bucks will make the move to draft Jennings at #10.

    /the Bucks?
    //a good move?
    ///I’m confused
    ////gitc’d  

    (Quote)

  • guyinthecorner says:

    Lakers sell the #29 pick to the Knicks for 2011 2nd rounder and $3,000,000.  

    (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    I’m skeptical on trading Lee this early, but if it gets you a ring and brings Vince home, I guess do it.

    Fanhouse is saying we’re in talks for TMAc too. He has a much more friendly contract. Although I’m not sure how the masses in Orlando will take that.  

    (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    GatorTrey: I’m skeptical on trading Lee this early, but if it gets you a ring and brings Vince home, I guess do it.Fanhouse is saying we’re in talks for TMAc too. He has a much more friendly contract. Although I’m not sure how the masses in Orlando will take that.

    Vince Carter bring you a ring? Hahahahhahahahahahha, trading Courtney Lee would be stupid.  

    (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    Jesus Chris, hyperbole much?

    For sheer star power, the O’Neal-James tandem rivals any on the sports landscape today. And if it works, and lasts, the pairing may one day belong in the same company as some of the all-time combinations such as Maris-Mantle, Koufax-Drysdale or Montana-Rice.

      

    (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    cbh49er:

    Vince Carter bring you a ring? Hahahahhahahahahahha, trading Courtney Lee would be stupid.

    You add Carter to a lineup with Nelson, Lewis, Dwight…and resign Hedo? That’s a pretty good lineup.

    I love Courtney Lee, adn I really don’t wanna trade him, but that’s similar to what Boston was throwing on the floor.  

    (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    cbh49er:

    Jesus Chris, hyperbole much?

    Who wrote that  

    (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    GatorTrey: You add Carter to a lineup with Nelson, Lewis, Dwight…and resign Hedo? That’s a pretty good lineup. I love Courtney Lee, adn I really don’t wanna trade him, but that’s similar to what Boston was throwing on the floor.

    Gator, if they bring in Vince, can they even afford Hedo?  

    (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    GatorTrey: Who wrote that

    Not sure, its on ESPN.com. Shocker, I know.  

    (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    cbh49er:

    Gator, if they bring in Vince, can they even afford Hedo?

    Questionable, They’ve said they’d hit the luxury this offseason. I would say no. Likely would start Pietrus there.  

    (Quote)

  • jp manahan says:

    i am going to break this down myself. :) watch out for some posts this weekend.  

    (Quote)

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