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June 24, 2009

Preseason Rankings Need to Die

By HuskerDawg

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Around this time every year college football junkies begin to get the fix. With just over two months until the season kicks off, sports magazines will hit the shelves to predict the goings-on for the upcoming season. I am as big of a college football fan as anyone, but I hate preseason magazines. Actually, I should clarify my statement. I hate preseason rankings in preseason magazines.

I understand why the magazines and web sites have the rankings. Web site hits and magazine sales are driven by people picking up Phil Steele’s latest prognostications and dissecting the schedules and what not. But what happens is that teams that are rated highly are at a distinct advantage, even before they have played a single game. Now, before you send your angry emails that argue the preseason rankings don’t matter, let me stop you. Yes, the coach’s poll and Harris poll come out a few weeks into the season, but they come out too early so the big teams have usually not played good opponents (notice the plural). So what happens? The polls look just like all of the preseason magazine polls. I would bet most of the voters who comprise the Harris Interactive Poll just look at magazine rankings and copy and paste them onto their initial ballots assuming the teams have yet to lose a game. Teams that are undefeated get to stay in their slot even though the voters do not take into account that some teams have played poorly, yet remain undefeated. Other teams could have lost a tough opening game – say VT losing to Alabama the first week this year – but still be more deserving of a top-15 spot over an undefeated Notre Dame squad who beat up on Syracuse. Hell, Boomer Esiason is a voter. That’s right, the guy who should be watching NFL tape so he can break down game film for CBS’s NFL coverage is supposed to take 15 hours every Saturday – the day before he is supposed to be on camera for CBS – and make an informed ranking and have it to the poll collectors by 1:00 p.m. Sunday. Only in college football would this idea get approved.

I understand that the preseason magazines aren’t going anywhere. Print journalism is dying as we speak, so to ask them to stop printing the one thing that sells is not an option. What the NCAA needs to do is force the coach’s poll and the Harris Poll to hold their initial ranking until the seventh or eighth week of the season, not the fourth or fifth. Until teams have played 6-7 games you really don’t know who is good and who is not. Most teams play three soft non-conference opponents, so the first 3-4 weeks are mostly glorified scrimmages. Having rankings based on Texas playing Wyoming or Florida playing Troy is a waste of time. Sure, USC and Alabama play a top team early, but it is not like people will forget how the teams looked in those games. Have teams play 2-3 conference opponents before voters judge them. By the sixth or seventh game, people should know who the best 20 teams are. Having them determine that after two or three games doesn’t make sense.

Preseason rankings matter. Auburn lost a shot a title because they were rated so low at the start of the 2004 season. Had voters waited until week eight, they would have seen that Auburn was legit. This year Notre Dame could be the inverse of the 2004 Auburn team. Notre Dame is going to be ranked this year in the preseason (Phil Steele inexplicably has them at 7). The Irish play a super-soft schedule, with USC being the only lock to be ranked. So if they wind up at 9-3, there is a very good chance that they will be in the top 15, which means that they will be oh-so-close to a guaranteed spot in the BCS. If Georgia Tech, for example, had the same record, or even 10-2, they would have a much tougher time getting into the top 15 because they will start out so much lower, and this is what needs to be avoided. Voters are historically stubborn when it comes to dropping teams when they win. This needs to stop. Voters need to have the guts to drop a team for playing poorly and beating inferior opponents by less than they should. There also needs to be a quality win component in the BCS, like it once had. The quality win component ensured that teams would be rewarded for beating stiff competition. Had college football had this aspect last year, Texas would have avoided the shaft and fans might have been dealt a better title game (though that is highly doubtful). As it stands now, the Texas Tech’s of the world are rewarded for playing patsies. Before Texas Tech was pounded by Oklahoma, they were ranked in the top two in the nation. Their non-conference slate was Eastern Washington, @ Nevada, SMU and Umass. Voters have to stop rewarding teams for playing schedules like that. Notre Dame dropped a number of teams because they knew it was detrimental. If I were an AD I would schedule cream puff after cream puff because if you run the table, you’re going to be in the big game. And that is all that matters.

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Author Site : http://www.spartyandfriends.com

51 Comments

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  • cbh49er says:

    If none of the BCS games matter besides the championship as so many like to say, then why do any of you give a crap if Notre Dame plays in a BCS game?  (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    Also, if voters had to wait until the 7th or 8th week, would their inherent thinking change at all? Wouldn’t they just do the same things as they always do, except we wouldn’t get to see it for 7 weeks?  (Quote)

  • knightwhosaysni says:

    I agree with this post. I’d also like to add that every voter’s poll should be made public every single week so they could be chastised. Also I want a playoff. Come on Barry quit being a media whore and make this happen!  (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    I think if a playoff is ever instituted you would all be severly disappointed.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    cbh49er:

    Also, if voters had to wait until the 7th or 8th week, would their inherent thinking change at all? Wouldn’t they just do the same things as they always do, except we wouldn’t get to see it for 7 weeks?

    They would have more time to expose frauds. Sure, there will be teams that collapse late, but it will make for a truer look at the best 25 teams. Voters are too hesitant to drop teams when they win ugly than they should be. Once a team gets to spot in the top 15 or so, all they have to do is go 9-3 or so and they’ll stay there whether they deserve it or not. The reason I get upset when ND gets a slot in the BCS when they don’t deserve it is because that takes away money from teams that could use it more than ND. BCS games matter more in terms of money and exposure than the actual game itself. But you’re right that all games with the exception of the title game are useless outside of money and exposure.  (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    But it seems like in your eyes Notre Dame has to go 12-0 to earn a spot in the BCS. If they went 11-1 is that good enough? 10-2?  (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    cbh49er: I think if a playoff is ever instituted you would all be severly disappointed.

    no way. even if MSU missed out, which they would, i would be ecstatic to know that ND isn’t getting late season exposure.  (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    cbh49er: But it seems like in your eyes Notre Dame has to go 12-0 to earn a spot in the BCS. If they went 11-1 is that good enough? 10-2?

    soft schedule. nope.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    cbh49er:

    I think if a playoff is ever instituted you would all be severly disappointed.

    Why? The argument that a playoff harms the regular season is 99% bull shit. Do you think Ohio St is going to sit players against Mich? Last year Texas beat OU. So in the dream world that BCS-ites live in, the “regular season is a playoff” talk went to shit once OU went ahead of UT for a shot at the title. If a playoff was done correctly (I know, who am I kidding), it would be amazing. If there was a stipulation that a team must be in the top 12 to be eligible, it would make for a great 8-team tournament.  (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    HuskerDawg:

    They would have more time to expose frauds. Sure, there will be teams that collapse late, but it will make for a truer look at the best 25 teams. Voters are too hesitant to drop teams when they win ugly than they should be. Once a team gets to spot in the top 15 or so, all they have to do is go 9-3 or so and they’ll stay there whether they deserve it or not. The reason I get upset when ND gets a slot in the BCS when they don’t deserve it is because that takes away money from teams that could use it more than ND. BCS games matter more in terms of money and exposure than the actual game itself. But you’re right that all games with the exception of the title game are useless outside of money and exposure.

    Agreed. There are too many teams that have bene put behind the 8 ball because of preseason rankings. While it isn’t always as bad sas some make it, it does hurt.

    The ultimate example is 2004 Auburn.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    knightwhosaysni:

    I agree with this post. I’d also like to add that every voter’s poll should be made public every single week so they could be chastised. Also I want a playoff. Come on Barry quit being a media whore and make this happen!

    I totally agree on the need for transparency in polls. It is such a pussy-ass move to make them secret. I love how coaches demand accountability from their players yet they don’t like it when the same is asked of them.  (Quote)

  • henry8minus1 says:

    If I were an AD I would schedule cream puff after cream puff because if you run the table, you’re going to be in the big game. And that is all that matters.

    Only if you are the AD in a BCS conference! Ask Utah and Boise State how running the table gets you into the big game.

    Well maybe not Boise State, this site has already done a great job of pissing off Idaho.  (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    HuskerDawg:

    Why? The argument that a playoff harms the regular season is 99% bull shit. Do you think Ohio St is going to sit players against Mich? Last year Texas beat OU. So in the dream world that BCS-ites live in, the “regular season is a playoff” talk went to shit once OU went ahead of UT for a shot at the title. If a playoff was done correctly (I know, who am I kidding), it would be amazing. If there was a stipulation that a team must be in the top 12 to be eligible, it would make for a great 8-team tournament.

    A playoff would instantly put college football TV ratings up to a NFL level…I’m 100% convinced.

    And I also completely agree with your take that the regular season would be harmed…Look at it now. 10 teams make the BCS. You think any of those teams are taking the week off right now, or resting players?

    Wouldn’t happen.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    cbh49er:

    But it seems like in your eyes Notre Dame has to go 12-0 to earn a spot in the BCS. If they went 11-1 is that good enough? 10-2?

    It all depends on how they get there. If ND goes 10-2 this year, but gets drubbed by USC and loses to MSU–the only other team with a shot at being ranked most likely–than no, they shouldn’t get the bid just because they are ND. You can’t just say, “what if this is their record?” It’s more complicated than that.  (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    Also, if voters had to wait until the 7th or 8th week, would their inherent thinking change at all? Wouldn’t they just do the same things as they always do, except we wouldn’t get to see it for 7 weeks?

    i think it would most definitely change. they wouldn’t be so busy trying to figure out week 1 rankings with zero evidence.  (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    Does scheduling a creampuff schedule necesarily get you in? No.

    Florida NEEDED the two big out of conference games (Miami and FSU) to get them in the BCS title. Without the Miami game added to the regular schedule Texas would have been #2.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    GatorTrey:

    A playoff would instantly put college football TV ratings up to a NFL level…I’m 100% convinced.

    And I also completely agree with your take that the regular season would be harmed…Look at it now. 10 teams make the BCS. You think any of those teams are taking the week off right now, or resting players?

    Wouldn’t happen.

    Yeah, I would say Utah got screwed. However, I think the bowl game was different than it would have been if it were the title game. By this I mean Alabama would have played much better. Bama had nothing to play for in that game whereas Utah saw it as their title game.  (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    hmmmmm. what if we do get a playoff. what the hell are we gonna talk about?  (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    Alright, well how about this? Instead of already calling Notre Dame’s schedule soft, lets let the season play out? Or does that only work for every other team but Notre Dame?

    Sparty, Montana State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan? Spartans don’t deserve a BCS at large berth.

    You would be disappointed because this playoff talk has gotten hyped to another level and nothing will live up to what people have been clamoring for.  (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    Can I ever get a buddy on this site? It is me against the world in every argument. Do you guys disagree on anything?  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    GatorTrey:

    Does scheduling a creampuff schedule necesarily get you in? No.

    Florida NEEDED the two big out of conference games (Miami and FSU) to get them in the BCS title. Without the Miami game added to the regular schedule Texas would have been #2.

    They needed them only because they lost to Ole Miss. Had they beaten Ole Miss they could have played the Citadel and La tech and played for a title.  (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    HuskerDawg:
    Yeah, I would say Utah got screwed.However, I think the bowl game was different than it would have been if it were the title game.By this I mean Alabama would have played much better.Bama had nothing to play for in that game whereas Utah saw it as their title game.

    ugh, not that argument. seriously? don’t give me that bullshit about Alabama. Bama lost because they were just not as good as everyone thought.  (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    cbh49er: Can I ever get a buddy on this site? It is me against the world in every argument. Do you guys disagree on anything?

    ha! have you seen us agree with GITC on much? Big D and I don’t agree on much. because he is a left wing nut. i think you could make the argument that the baseball fans that write on this site didn’t agree with his contraction post.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    sparty:

    ugh, not that argument. seriously? don’t give me that bullshit about Alabama. Bama lost because they were just not as good as everyone thought.

    I’m not saying they would have won, but you can’t argue that the game meant totally different things to each team.

    cbh49er:

    Alright, well how about this? Instead of already calling Notre Dame’s schedule soft, lets let the season play out? Or does that only work for every other team but Notre Dame?

    Sparty, Montana State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan? Spartans don’t deserve a BCS at large berth.

    You would be disappointed because this playoff talk has gotten hyped to another level and nothing will live up to what people have been clamoring for.

    You’re right…the season needs to be played out before any difinitive answers come about…but this is a discussion assuming the teams that are shitty on ND’s schedule stay that way. But you are right, a team or two on their schedule could surprise people.  (Quote)

  • sae says:

    sparty:
    ha! have you seen us agree with GITC on much?Big D and I don’t agree on much. because he is a left wing nut. i think you could make the argument that the baseball fans on this site didn’t agree with his contraction post.

    especially those of us with teams he wanted to contract, although i may be the only one of those here  (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    cbh49er: You would be disappointed because this playoff talk has gotten hyped to another level and nothing will live up to what people have been clamoring for.

    I can’t agree with you on this.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    I totally disagree with any notion that a playoff would be a downer. As long as the winner is determined by two teams playing each other, it will be better than what we have now.  (Quote)

  • cbh49er says:

    GatorTrey: I can’t agree with you on this.

    Haha, nice Trey.  (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    Sparty, Montana State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan? Spartans don’t deserve a BCS at large berth.

    if we went 10-2, we would probably get the benefit of the doubt as a Big 10 team, depending on who we lose to in conference.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    Gator: What do you think about the proposal to move the GA-FLA game from Jax?  (Quote)

  • henry8minus1 says:

    HuskerDawg: Yeah, I would say Utah got screwed. However, I think the bowl game was different than it would have been if it were the title game. By this I mean Alabama would have played much better. Bama had nothing to play for in that game whereas Utah saw it as their title game.

    I actually don’t care so much about the Utah-Alabama, all that showed was that Utah was better than most people thought, and/or Alabama was worse than people thought or un-motivated.

    My point is that Utah should have had a chance at a national championship. But, this will only happen with a playoff, because looking at last year there is no way you can put Utah in over OU, Texas, or Flordia. (Unless you are blind and really think Utah was better than them.)  (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    HuskerDawg:

    Gator: What do you think about the proposal to move the GA-FLA game from Jax?

    Hate it. I take solance in the fact that Florida will keep their home games there, but hate the idea as a whole.

    I’ve attended 8 straight Florida/Georgia games and already have my rooms booked this year.

    I understand Georgia’s argument about the disatnce, but the stadium is 50/50, and it really didn’t bother Dawg fans when they were kicking our asses there in the 70s and 80s.

    Keep it in Jax, it’s one of the best traditions/games in sports much less college football.  (Quote)

  • knightwhosaysni says:

    Threadjack: Goal USA! 1-0 over Spain

    /end threadjack  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    henry8minus1:

    I actually don’t care so much about the Utah-Alabama, all that showed was that Utah was better than most people thought, and/or Alabama was worse than people thought or un-motivated.

    My point is that Utah should have had a chance at a national championship. But, this will only happen with a playoff, because looking at last year there is no way you can put Utah in over OU, Texas, or Flordia. (Unless you are blind and really think Utah was better than them.)

    If the NCAA cared about crowning a true champion (they don’t), they would institute a playoff (they won’t). You’re dead-on when you said Utah-like teams will only have a chance with a playoff.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    knightwhosaysni:

    Threadjack: Goal USA! 1-0 over Spain

    /end threadjack

    Holy f-ing shit…I tivo’d this bitch and now you have me excited. Any way you could refrain from posting further updates? I’m being selfish, but now I want to see it unfold.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    GatorTrey:

    Hate it. I take solance in the fact that Florida will keep their home games there, but hate the idea as a whole.

    I’ve attended 8 straight Florida/Georgia games and already have my rooms booked this year.

    I understand Georgia’s argument about the disatnce, but the stadium is 50/50, and it really didn’t bother Dawg fans when they were kicking our asses there in the 70s and 80s.

    Keep it in Jax, it’s one of the best traditions/games in sports much less college football.

    I agree on it being neutral, but I would love it if they had a break and went home-and-home for 2 years. I want to go to a game in the Swamp and I think it would be a great atmosphere in Athens.  (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    Sadly I think it’s gonna end up Atl-Jax  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    GatorTrey:

    Sadly I think it’s gonna end up Atl-Jax

    Seeing as how I live in ATL that wouldn’t bother me too much (a hell of lot cheaper), but I would love to see FLA come to Athens.  (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    As long as it went as well for Florida s the last time we went to Athens.  (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    we are winning in soccer?  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    GatorTrey:

    As long as it went as well for Florida s the last time we went to Athens.

    The bull shit flea ficker Spurrier called was so lame…but I do miss the Ol Ball Coach. He was infinitely funnier than Meyer (or any other coach for that matter).  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    sparty:

    we are winning in soccer?

    So sayeth knights…let’s keep it up (please don’t ruin it for me by posting the score).  (Quote)

  • knightwhosaysni says:

    HuskerDawg: Holy f-ing shit…I tivo’d this bitch and now you have me excited. Any way you could refrain from posting further updates? I’m being selfish, but now I want to see it unfold.

    yep, no more updates. Sorry bout that, but it was an early goal so a lot of drama still.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    knightwhosaysni:

    yep, no more updates. Sorry bout that, but it was an early goal so a lot of drama still.

    I’m more excited now. I figure we’ll lose, but at least we made it interesting.  (Quote)

  • GatorTrey says:

    Gotta socre 50 between the hedges…  (Quote)

  • knightwhosaysni says:

    Regarding a playoff, I never get disappointed by the NFL playoffs. It would have been Tennessee vs. Giants last year and Patriots vs Dallas the year before. Instead it was settled on the field and it was far more exciting. I see no reason a college playoff wouldn’t work out the same way. And with so many more teams and conferences it is much harder to differentiate who’s the best in college than in the NFL. That makes a playoff in college the best overall solution.  (Quote)

  • HuskerDawg says:

    GatorTrey:

    Gotta socre 50 between the hedges…

    And he did.  (Quote)

  • knightro says:

    cbh49er: Can I ever get a buddy on this site? It is me against the world in every argument. Do you guys disagree on anything?

    Has anyone ever agreed that Pierce is greater than everybody?  (Quote)

  • knightro says:

    kwsn – are you watching the US/Spain game live? I have it on.

    And I won’t post anything about it.  (Quote)

  • knightwhosaysni says:

    knightro: kwsn – are you watching the US/Spain game live? I have it on. And I won’t post anything about it.

    yes  (Quote)

  • Rockabye says:

    The only rankings I care about are Steele’s, and only because he tries to predict the end of the season, rather than the beginning.  (Quote)

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