Back on February 6^th, just days after the Steelers got one for the, um, other thumb, I brought you the Way Too Early Super Bowl XLIV Odds. Now that the bookies have had a chance to reevaluate things, not to mention free agency and the draft, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at just how much the lines have moved and offer some new thoughts. What follows is a recap of the original post with new notes and possibly some new insight.

New information is posted in red. And likely, everything is wrong. I just like to look back and see how far off I can be, and how much money I can cost myself by not getting in early on a bet.

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog are accurate as of 6pm Thursday. (New lines accurate as of 10pm June 15^th) That about covers it.

The Favorites:

New England Patriots: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. The Patriots are opening the off-season as the favorites to win it all. This year, they’re opening at 8/1 odds. Pending the condition of Tom Brady, not to mention if they can fill some pressing defensive needs with the draft and/or whatever they get for trading newly franchised Matt Cassell, the Pats once again need to be the “safety valve” bet for any serious gambler. And at 8/1, you still get a pretty solid return on the bet if they go all the way. Update: How many teams do you think could trade away last year’s starting QB and a starting linebacker for just a second round draft pick, then trade completely out of the first round of the draft and still see their odds get better? It’s amazing the respect the Patriots’ franchise has earned. They’re at 9/2 right now, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that drop to 3/1 or lower by Opening Day.

Dallas Cowboys: 9/1 odds? The favorites to win the NFC? Really? What exactly gives the impression that this team is even playoff ready in ’09, let alone the favorites to win the conference? At 9/1, you’re not getting enough return to justify the risk on a team this dysfunctional. They shed T.O. and the odds get worse running to 14/1. Impressive work here. That actually might be a good enough payout to justify a bet if they’ve got their collective heads on straight with Owens out of town.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Another 9/1 team, there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to duplicate this year’s success and make another deep playoff run. The Bengals & Browns don’t seem to be getting much better, leaving only the Ravens as AFC North competition. I believe the Steelers proved they could handle Baltimore this year, three different times. They haven’t made any major moves outside of the draft, so there’s no reason for the line to move. It hasn’t.

Others: Colts (12/1) – Too many changes. Still 12/1, somehow. I stand by my original statement. Giants (10/1) – Who’s Eli throwing the ball to in ’09? Ditto the Indy info  Though with the Cowboys jump in number, they’re now the favorite to win the NFC.  Congrats Sparty. Chargers (12/1) – Really? Has San Diego ever won anything? 14/1 now, still not worth it.  Get me up to 20 or 25/1 and we’ll talk.

Middle of the Pack:

Baltimore Ravens: I love this number for them (14/1), especially if they can keep their linebacking corps intact and get one more receiver for Flacco… Boldin? Plax? Their biggest priority has to be keeping Ray Lewis and/or Terrell Suggs from bolting as free agents (though I would love Suggs in New England). They pick late in the draft, so if they lose one of their marquis names, they might be able to get a decent replacement. First, I meant Bart Scott and not Terrell Suggs back in February. Blame Super Bowl hangover. Somehow, their number has jumped to 20/1 even though they kept Lewis. If they can manage to get Flacco a target like Boldin, Plax or now Brandon Marshall, they’ve got to be a favorite. Keep a close eye on this line.

Carolina Panthers: I’m still not sure how they’re at 18/1 right now. I mean, if not for a complete mental meltdown by Jake Delhomme this past year, they were probably the most complete team in the NFC playoffs. In a recent e-mail chain with Sparty, I professed my love of the idea of Daunte Culpepper signing with Carolina (or Donovan McNabb getting traded there?) to replace Delhomme by midseason – seriously, can’t you see them just throwing the ball a mile and letting Steve Smith or Muhsin Muhammed run and get it? Doesn’t look like Daunte or Donovan is going to be a Panther anytime soon, so they’re still relying on a (newly extended?!?) Jake Delhomme. They’ve also jumped to 20/1, and are looking like a mortal lock for a 9-7 season.

Jacksonville Jaguars: They burned me last year – maybe I overrated them, maybe they underachieved, or maybe they’re really that bad. But at 25/1 odds, I don’t mind taking a chance one more time. Up to 35/1, probably don’t have the horses to contend in the AFC south. Hard to make the playoffs going 2-4 in your own division.

Others: Cardinals (30/1) – They couldn’t do it again, right? Maybe so – they’ve fallen to 22/1, and if they keep Boldin happy there’s no reason to think the line won’t be closer to 15/1 by Opening Day. Packers (25/1) – somebody has to win the NFC North, maybe they can get hot late. They haven’t moved, but with Chicago & Minnesota (likely) getting better, they’re not winning the division. Stay away. Eagles (18/1) – Number seems high, until you remember Philly fans will never let Donovan McNabb be happy. 14/1 now with the new McNabb extension and a pretty good draft. Let’s see just how healthy Brian Westbrook is before jumping on this line.

The Long Shots:

Buffalo Bills: At 30/1, they’re right about where whey should be. They came out both guns blazing in ’08… then promptly fizzled out to finish dead last in the division. I won’t be touching this line, but at a 30/1 return, they’d be nice to roll the dice with – especially if Brady isn’t 100% and the Jets bring back Favre. Nothing funnier than a team adding a “Superstar” like Terrell Owens and immediately seeing their Super Bowl odds almost double. The Bills are up to 50/1 right now – I’d be surprised to see them win 7 games in ’09.

Chicago Bears: For much the same reason as the Packers above – somebody’s got to win the NFC North, and I wouldn’t trust the Vikings to do it again (even at 25/1). The Bears still need to add a competent QB… McNabb? Cassell? Gulp… Favre? Well, they did add that competent QB. Their line moved to 20/1, which seems like an awful good return for a team that was really only missing one piece the past five years and just patched that hole via trade, all gift-wrapped and on a silver platter.

Houston Texans: They have the unfortunate task of being in the toughest division in the NFL. I’d be absolutely shocked if they even make the playoffs in the next five years, but with 35/1 odds and an offense that includes Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, I just can’t count them out. Still at 35/1, I wouldn’t be too shocked if they finished this season ahead of Indianapolis. The AFC South just seems 100% wide-open to me right now.

Others: Chiefs (100/1) – Watch how fast that number drops after they trade for Cassell and appease Larry Johnson. Yup. All the way down to 65/1. In the AFC West, if the Chargers falter even a little I could see the door opening for somebody to step in.  Probably not KC, but who knows? Browns (55/1) – No more Romeo… gotta count for something, right? Apparently Mangini is even worse – the line has rocketed to 70/1. So, the Browns are a worse team than the Chiefs? Not buying it, sorry. Still not betting on the Browns to make a miracle run, but that number seems a little ludicrous. Dolphins (35/1) – seems a little ridiculous for a team that won the AFC East this past season. And yet it’s up to 45/1 today. This could be a surprise team in 2009 – if you’re looking for a total long shot a la last years’ Cardinals, don’t overlook Miami. 45/1 is a real nice number for very little risk.

Popularity: 4% [?]