THE MADNESS HAS BEGUN!!

How cliche was that!? I wonder how many websites/newspapers/media entities have used that phrase over the past week? Probably a lot; so why not one more, right? At any rate, it’s true. The Madness has begun and I have to say it’s been quite maddening so far.

Yep, I’m recycling my own old – and likely crappy – jokes. I guess you could say I Dane Cook’ed myself? Whatever…the Big Dance is here! I’m pretty excited. The brackets are out, in case you weren’t aware. By the way, speaking of the bracket, is anyone else amazed how Memphis can be ranked #2 and #3 in the two polls and still be at best the #5 ranked team according to the tournament committee? That boggles my mind; but it probably doesn’t matter all that much.

Anyway, let’s get down to business…

Before we get into the conference reviews, let’s take a look at the final pre-NCAA tournament polls and each team’s movement respective to last week:

Now, onto the experts:

Big East: Patphish -There is a method to our madness around here, as all season we have listed the major conferences alphabetically with one exception. The Big East has always come first because the writers here understand the amazing season the conference just completed. As the conference tourney ended, it was not lost on many of us that the best season by one conference in college basketball history had just occurred. 3 teams took turns being # 1, 2 of them got there, lost and got there again. They have 3 of the top seeds in the big dance and 5 of the top 12 seeds, do you know how insane that is? Best defensive player in the country? Hasheem Thabeet. Best game of the year and in the top 10 of all time? Syracuse’s 6 OT masterpiece over UConn. Find me a coaching trio better than Calhoun, Pitino and Boehiem.

We had a lot of back and forth around here this year with ACC vs Big East, and I love being part of that banter. After about mid-January however, it really wasn’t an argument anymore. The ACC has great history, it has been in existence much longer, a plethora of All-Americans, many great coaches and teams, but it is no longer up for for argument, (DYK? everyone complains that the Big East is too big, but 15 of the 16 teams have been to the final 4). The Big East was far superior to all the rest this year and it will be proven over the next 3 weeks. This year is going to resemble 1985, when 3 teams made the final 4 and Villanova shot lights out in a championship victory over Ewing and Georgetown.

4 of the 7 teams in the dance will reach the regional finals, that would be 50% for our loyal math writers and readers. Many of them love to cry about RPI and SOS and the weak bottom of the conference, which my response is always "watch the games". Seriously, if you have a chance over the next 2 weeks, watch any game featuring a Big East team. Watch the intensity, the energy and sheer guts they play with.

I hate Syracuse, (I mean you kicked my puppy type hate), but watching Johnny Flynn in the Big East tourney was unreal. The kid is all guts. Watching him trade punches with A.J. Price is something I will never forget. I respect him now. That is hard for me to say, but I love competitors and he is hard core. The Orange may not last long due to mental fatigue, but I sure as hell wouldn’t bet against them in a close game when Flynn has the ball.

The tourney is my favorite event of the year. I leave work early, do nothing around the house, I just sit and watch hoops. I have had my heart broken many times, Laettner hitting a buzzer beater, Donyell Marshall bricking 2 free throws against Mississippi State, Ray Allen scoring 36 as a freshman and still losing to UCLA in a glorified home game for them, losing to UNC in Greensboro N.C. and of course losing to George F&%&*# Mason in 2006 with a final 4 trip on the line. But the joy of Rip Hamilton, Khalid El-Amin, Ricky Moore and Rashamel Jones winning that first title in 1999 has only been surpassed by my wedding day. The 2004 title was great as well, as my future wife sat next to me when I cried after beating Duke to reach the final game, she saw a side of me most never do. She now understands what happens to me when the tourney starts and although she is not much of a hoops fan, she screams and yells and bites all her nails off too.

LET’S. GO. HUSKIES.

ACC: GITC : The ACC ultimately ended up getting 7 teams into the dance. More than half isn’t bad, I guess. I should point out that if half of the Big East got into the tournament then they would have to expand it. What’s half of infinity? Anyway, I’ll go on the breakdown of their match-ups and how far they may go.

First up, North Carolina. As a #1 seed, they will obviously not lose their first round game to Radford. They also get pretty lucky because their 8/9 game is LSU/Butler and neither of those teams have the necessary stuff to really challenge them. Next round they will most likely face Gonzaga. If you haven’t seen the Zags in the last two weeks, you may not know that they look like world beaters out there. That said, the Tar Heels will most likely beat them but worst case scenario is a loss in that game. If they play any other team from that pod though (Illinois, Akron, Western Kentucky), they move on easily again. That puts them into the Elite 8 and a Regional Final game. That will could be against anybody from Oklahoma to Clemson to Syracuse to Arizona State. They’d kill ASU, ‘Cuse might put up a fight but I just don’t think they’d take them down, Clemson would be an interesting rematch as Trevor Booker would be looking for revenge, and Oklahoma could spell the end because Blake Griffin might eat Psycho T alive. I’d say their chances of getting past there are about 80% because I doubt Oklahoma’s ability to reach that game in the first place and they are the biggest threat match-up-wise. Into the Final Four the Heels could draw Pitt, Nova, or FSU. FSU is one of the 4 teams to beat them this year so they’d probably rather not face them, but the other options aren’t much better. The good thing about Pitt for them would be Levance Fields and his complete inability to stay near Ty Lawson. That plus the Tar Heels’ ability to put opponents in foul trouble would be enough to get them by. Nova wouldn’t be so easy. The quickness of Nova might be enough to beat the Heels if they have a bad enough shooting night. Overall, I’d still say a more than 60% chance of winning that round shall they reach it. In the Championship game ir’s just too hard to tell. I’d say the 5 possibilities and they’re chances would be Louisville (60%), Wake (75%), Michigan State (80%), Memphis (60%), and UConn (55%). So, I’d say they are favored in each round. That doesn’t mean they win and as always, it depends on match-ups.

Next we have Duke as a #2 seed. Fortunately for them, they don’t face a dangerous #15 this year. Binghamton has no shot. Next round they get Texas or Minnesota. Texas could pull the upset if Abrams is on from downtown and if Pittman can push around a small Duke team down low without getting in foul trouble, but Minnesota wouldn’t really have a chance. We are all looking forward to the prospect of a rematch with VCU in the Sweet 16 as Eric Maynor might beat them again but VCU would have to get past UCLA in the first and most likely Villanova in the second round. I don’t think UCLA has a chance at Nova (though VCU does) so I’ll just get to Nova. Nova should beat Duke. That doesn’t mean that they will but in case they don’t, either Pitt or FSU should clean it up so Duke won’t get to the Final Four.

At a #4 seed we find Wake Forest. They have a dangerous first round opponent in Cleveland State but they should dodge that upset although I’d take the points. They then get the Arizona/Utah winner which should have no chance. Then there’s the showdown we want to see; Louisville and Wake. That game is 55/45 in favor of Louisville in my opinion. If they get past that game though, they could get past Michigan State to go to the Final Four. I’d say that game is 55/45 in favor of Wake. To get to the Championship Game they’d have to face Memphis or UConn and I’d say they have a better shot at Memphis than UConn because of the style issues. I’d say they are a coin flip vs. Memphis and about only 35% to beat UConn. Could they win the Championship? The chances aren’t good unless they play Oklahoma or Villanova. If this sounds like a lot for a #4 seed remember that they’d have to win several coin flips in a row to get there.

Next on the board is #5 seed Florida State. This is the type of team that makes random tourney runs because they have a great player (Toney Douglas). Every game they play is loseable because if Douglas is off they might go down in flames. Starting with Wisconsin in the first round, they should win easily, but if the Badgers take down Douglas in might be a short stay for the ‘Noles. They probably shouldn’t have too much trouble with Xavier to reach the Sweet 16 and it might be easier if Jeremiah Dominguez and Portland State bull the 4/13 upset in the first round. Pitt is the big challenge. Pitt is beatable in every game of course because or DeJuan Blair and the prospect of foul trouble. Without that though, I don’t see how they get past that game. If they do get the break there, they’d most likely face Villanova (where they’d have virtually no chance) or Duke (who they’d love to see). If they get the break again and get Duke they could move on to the Final Four. From there though, it looks bad. They almost definitely get UNC, who they probably can’t beat again. They could also get Oklahoma which would be even worse because of Blake Griffin. Best case? Final Four.

At #7 we have both Boston College and Clemson. Let’s get BC out of the way first. They should beat USC, but that’s a dangerous game against a hot team. Even if they win it, I can’t really see them getting by Michigan State. Clemson on the other hand… They should handle Michigan in the first round pretty easily. After that they have the prospect if taking down Oklahoma because Trevor Booker might be able to handle Blake Griffin. After that they’d probably lose if the faced Syracuse, but they could luck out and get ASU. That game would be a coin flip. If they got past that they’d likely lose to UNC or Gonzaga.

Last but not least is #10 seeded Maryland. They should handle Cal in the first round unless something really odd happens. That seems odd to say as they are the underdog, but the match-up just doesn’t favor Cal. Next up would be Memphis. The Terps could pull the upset (as they’ve proven they can do) if they can dig deep and really put it all out there. The 6″6 Vasquez is a rare answer to the 6″7 frame of Tyreke Evans at the point and that could help a lot. After that Maryland could get one more round if they don’t have to face Mizzou who would defend Maryland to death. If it’s Marquette, they have a chance, just not a good one. Even if they get lucky there, UConn will take them down before they go any further.

Big 10: Sparty – Everything went according to plan in the Big 10 Tournament until the semi-finals. In the first round Minnesota needed a win, done. Michigan needed a win, done. Penn State had to win to keep hopes alive, done. We moved onto round 2 and Ohio State knocked off Wisconsin. Illinois then took down Michigan, Purdue destroyed Penn State, and Michigan State handled a feisty Minnesota squad.

Then the surprise happened. The Buckeyes absolutely destroyed Michigan State in their semi-final matchup. Though the Spartans cut the lead to one early in the 2nd half, it was never quite a close game. So much attention was given to Evan Turner, that Jon Diebler and PJ Hill lit Sparty up from the outside, and Michigan State was shellacked.

Purdue handled the Illini with ease in the other semi-final game. The Boilermakers followed that up with a very strong victory over the Buckeyes to clinch the Big Ten Tourney crown.

Shortly after the final buzzer of the championship game, it was announced that the Big Ten was given 7 spots in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan St, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota were the recipients of bids. The Big 10 now needs to prove ot the nation that they earned those bids. I fully expect them to do so on the opening round. All but Wisconsin will advance to the second day of the tourney, and then the country will recognize that they well deserved 5 of those at large bids they were granted.

How successful can the Big 10 be late in March? I only see two teams that could make the Final Four, but honestly only predict one of them to make it out of their bracket. Michigan State has to run through hell in their half of the midwest bracket before succumbing to Lousiville in the Elite Eight. However, the depth and quality of Purdue should be enough to carry them as they are now healthy. Purdue will be the Big 10 representative in the Final Four.

Big 12: Trey/Miz - The Big 12 tourney was a total shocker. After the second day Kansas and Oklahoma were gone. The third day, down went Texas. This left Mizzou needing to beat a tired Baylor team to win the auto-bid, and obviously it happend. The Big 12 managed to get 6 in the NCAAs.

Oklahoma should be able to do what Maryland couldn’t and handle a pretty awful Morgan State team. While Mizzou should do the same with the always smarter than you so who cares Cornell team.

You want bold prediction though? Well I will give it to you. North Dakota State will give Kansas a run for their money. The Jayhawks have been struggling, a lot, and ND State gave USC a run for their money….it probably won’t happen, but if you want to say you picked a big upset…this is it.

Texas A&M/BYU and Texas/Minnesota will be awesome first round matchups, but I don’t see either Big 12 teams making it past the second round (you never know with soft Duke sitting there). Finally, The Oklahoma State/Tennessee game will be the best of teh 1st round, if you can get in front of a TV for it. Do it.

PAC 10: thecassino – The Pac-10 tournament was anything but predictable. Arizona was supposed to come out and play their way into the big dance. They laid an egg. Washington and UCLA were supposed to blow through teams they had swept and meet up in the title game for a rubber match. Both made second round exits. Arizona State and USC were supposed to be tired due to lack of depth. They faced off in the title game. Ultimately the tournament netted the best possible result for the conference as a whole, with USC taking the automatic berth and Arizona squeaking their way in despite their loss. The conference has to be ecstatic that 6 teams made the dance in what was supposed to be a down year.

The Huskies drew Mississippi State in their opener, and a lot of people in this neck of the woods are upset about it. I guess they aren’t aware that Miss State’s put up a very pedestrian 9-7 record in a very pathetic SEC. To put into perspective just how bad that is: the SEC’s best team (according to Kenpom) is Tennessee, at 32nd. Just ahead of them at 31 is Washington State, the Pac-10’s 7th best team. How many games does Mississippi State win if they’re in the Pac-10? 4? 5? Not a good team. In terms of the actual matchup, Mississippi State has the worst flaw for a team to have when playing the Huskies, in that they don’t prevent offensive boards well, which is where the Huskies make their living. A matchup with Purdue in the second round would likely be an excellent game, but the game that the Huskies want is in the Sweet 16 with UConn. The last two times these teams played were also in the Sweet 16, and both were classic games. One ended on a Rip Hamilton buzzer beater, the other went into overtime, and UConn prevailed. Washington would love another shot at those other Huskies.

UCLA is the best team to not get a protected seed. VCU is a chic pick to upset them in the first round, with a lot of people on the Eric Maynor bandwagon. Unfortunately for Maynor, Darren Collison is better than him at every aspect playing basketball and has a vastly superior supporting cast. VCU will not give UCLA much trouble, but the second round game against Villanova will be tough for the Bruins as it’s a virtual road game. However, if they can gut that one out I wouldn’t be shocked to see them make a run to their 4th straight Final 4. Being put in the same bracket with choke artists Duke and Pitt is great news, and the UCLA/Villanova winner has an amazing shot to come out of the East, which could end up being the weakest bracket.

USC, as a 10 seed, is given 65% chance by KenPom to beat Boston College in their first round game. And with the way they played in the Pac-10 tournament, there’s no reason to believe that’s anything but accurate. Over the course of their grabbing an auto-bid DeMar DeRozan has been brilliant and showed why there was so much hype surrounding him coming out of high school. Had he played like that all season, USC wouldn’t have needed an automatic bid to get in. If Tim Floyd can come up with a good defensive gameplan, this team should be able to get to a second round blowout at the hands of Michigan State.

If you’re looking for a team that could knock off a giant early, Cal is your team. They’re the best three point shooting team in the nation, led by Jerome Randle (47%) and Theo Robertson (49%). They have length to bother passing lanes and Greivis Vasquez will be introduced to Jorge Guitierrez, one of the Pac-10’s best defenders. Vasquez may have a lot of trouble dealing with Gutierrez’s annoyingly persistent ball pressure and scrappy play. Should the Golden Bears beat Maryland, they have as good a shot as anybody at knocking off Memphis as long as their shoots are falling.

A lot of people felt Arizona shouldn’t have made the field, but now that they have they could be in a position to win a game or two. But don’t count on it. They’ve lost 5 of 6, and haven’t been able to beat anybody away from home all year. Hill/Budinger/Wise is as good a trio as you’ll see, but it’s hard to get behind a team that played poorly when it mattered most, capped by a 13 point loss to Arizona State in a game which at the time was thought to be a must-win. They’re pretty tempting to take for a 5/12 upset though.

Arizona State gets Temple in the first round. You’d think that now would be the time for them to open it up a little and let James Harden do some damage, but don’t count on Herb Sendek doing something that, you know, might work. This team will go exactly as far as Harden takes them, and no further. It would be interesting to see Arizona State win a couple games and meet Oklahoma in the Sweet 16 and get to watch Harden and Blake Griffin on the court at the same time.

Washington State made the NIT, and though they’re a 7 seed they’re definitely one of the best teams in the field.

SEC: Miz/Trey – The SEC tournament had plenty of really good games. Tennessee stepped up for two games and seemed to look like the team that many thought they would be this year during the two rounds in which they won. The Vols had never made it to the SEC tournament’s championship game before so getting there is just another notch on Bruce Pearl’s belt of Tennessee basketball history. But, just reaching the championship game wasn’t enough as the Mississippi State Bulldawgs upended the Vols with great defensive pressure while up by 3 points and less than 10 seconds left. The Vols turned the ball over to the Dawgs twice in those final seconds and Missy State ended up winning the championship and securing an automatic berth into the Big Dance.

Only three teams from the SEC have made the NCAA tournament…not the best of times for the conference, fo’ sho’. On top of that, none of the three teams are seeded higher than 8. LSU received the 8 seed while Tennessee was given a 9 and Mississippi State a 13. Considering the tossup that is the 8-9 first round game, no SEC team will be considered a favorite in their respective games and it’s entirely likely that the conference will not be represented in the tournament after Friday.

LSU opens their tournament with Butler…not a good matchup for the Tigeauxrs. Butler has played a much tougher schedule than LSU and has fewer overall losses. Butler is usually also good for a win or two in the tournament. Butler > LSU.

Tennessee gets Oklahoma State in the first round. If Tennessee plays like they did Friday or Saturday in the SEC tourney, they’ll take Oklahoma State easily. If they play like they did Sunday…it’s Okie State on to the second round. Tennessee > Oklahoma State. If Tennessee advances to the second round, Pitt will likely be waiting. Tennessee > Pitt (Miz speaking). By the way, LET’S GO COURTNEY PIGRAM AND ETSU!!

Mississippi State plays Washington in round 1.  Commenter and diehard Mississippi State fan, Graddawg, has previewed the game for us:

Thursday’s first round, West Region contest between the 4th seeded University of Washington Huskies and the 13th seed Mississippi State Bulldogs will be decided by two key match ups.  The battle in the paint will feature first-team all-conference big men in the form of UW’s Jon
Brockman and MState’s Jarvis Varnardo, the nation’s leading shot blocker.  Varnardo has struggled at times with more physical big men and Brockman, at 6′7″ 255lbs, certainly fits that mold.  However, Varnardo’s height advantage at 6″9″, and freakish 7′4″ wingspan, could be the
difference.

The other key match up will be the battle of true freshman point guards featuring the Huskies’ Isaiah Thomas and the Bulldog’s Dee Bost.  Thomas and Bost aren’t strangers as the two faced off last year in prep school with Bost’s Hargrave Military Academy team beating Thomas and his South Kent School mates.  While not a 3-point threat, Thomas thrives on getting in the lane and scoring from the FT line.  You can be sure that Jarvis Varnardo will be waiting.  Bost has played extremely well during the Bulldog’s 6 game winning streak and finished the season ranked 4th in assists in the SEC.  Thomas is the Pac-10 Freshman of the Year, while Bost finished second in the SEC for the same honor.

Common opponents:
Florida: Washington lost, Mississippi State won
Washington State: Washington won both times they played, Mississippi State lost

Pick: Dogs > Huskies 67-62

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