The 133rd season of Major League Baseball is upon us.  Over the next month and half, we will be taking a look at each ball club, leading up to the Expert Predictions of the esteemed staff at Sparty & Friends.  We will be previewing each team, from worst to first. Today, we take a trip to beautiful San Diego (I have never been there, but that is what people tell me).  I guess I should make an effort to get out there, since that is where my brother is currently stationed following a tour of duty in Iraq.  Oh yeah, and the Padres play there.

The San Diego Padres enter the 2009 season with one huge question mark - will Jake Peavy remain their #1 starter all season long? The Padres tried to trade him this past off-season, but could find no takers. There were a few reports that they were close to deals with the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago Cubs, but each deal fell apart, with the Cubs and Braves each claiming that Padres GM Kevin Towers was demanding the world for righty. When most teams finish with the 3rd worst record in a season, fans think the only place a team can go is up; but, that is a tough call with the Padres at this moment, especially considering the uncertainty of Peavy.

Even though the Pades have yet to win a World Series, they have had pretty good success in recent years winning 4 NL West titles in 12 years to go along with winning the Wild Card and reaching the World Series in 1998. However, last season saw a team that was expected to play for another division go into a tailspin in the month of June with the final result being a fall to the basement of the very average NL West.

Last Season: 63-99 (5th place in the NL West)

Who’s Gone: Trevor Hoffman CL (via FA), Khalil Green SS (via Trade), Matt Bush RP (via Trade)

Who’s New: Henry Blanco C (via FA), David Eckstein SS (via FA), Cliff Floyd (via FA), Mark Worrell RP (via Trade)

Projected Lineup:
1. David Eckstein SS
2. Scott Hairston CF
3. Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
4. Adrian Gonzalez 1B
5. Brian Giles RF
6. Chase Headley LF
7. Nick Hundley/Henry Blanco C
8. Matt Antonelli 2B
9. Pitcher

SP Jake Peavy
SP Chris Young
SP Cha Seung Baek
SP Josh Geer
SP Wade LeBlanc

CL Heath Bell

Key Bench Players:
Cliff Floyd OF
Jody Gerut OF
Luis Rodriguez INF
Edgar Gonzalez INF

Manager: Bud Black

Lineup Outlook - This lineup is not nearly as putrid as the lineup of the team we discussed yesterday. But, don’t let that excite you Padres fans because there still isn’t too much to get excited for. All you have to do is point out the the expected leadoff hitter; David Eckstein. The “scrappy one” has not played in more than 123 games since 2005, and is not much of a threat at the plate. He does not steal bases like he did when he was first with the Angels. In no way does he strike fear into opposing pitchers with his mediocre OBP. Hopefully, he finds his way onto the base paths, because the guy hitting behind him rarely came to bat with anyone on last year. Scott Hairston had a career high 17 HRs last year - not horrible - but he only knocked in 31 RBIs in 112 games and 362 PA. Yuck.

Things do improve slightly in the 3 spot. Kevin Kouzmanoff is not going to find himself on base very often, as evidenced by his OBP of .299 and batting avg of .260. However, when he isn’t swinging and missing (136 Ks) he can bring some pop to the lineup (23 HRs and 84 RBIs). Sometimes plate discipline needs to be learned on the job and Kouzmanoff was only in his second full year in the league last season. One can expect the 3rd year player to continue to show improvement and help score some runs in the abyss that is Petco Park.

Batting cleanup is Adrian Gonzalez. This is the guy you want in your lineup. Here is a guy who has gradually improved each and every season that he has been in the Major Leagues; and, there is no reason to think he won’t do the same this year. He does strikeout a little too much (142Ks in ‘08) but that is to be expected of the one guy in the lineup that produces in every game of the season. He hit 30+ HRs the last two years playing in one of the more difficult ballparks in the NL.

I’ll get to Brian Giles in one second.

Chase Headley is someone that the Padres really hope to see make the next step this season. Headley really excelled in the Minors, and they hope that translates to this year as he has been handed the keys to LF. If he can provide some additional protection in the lineup to Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres offense could be much better than expected. The talent is there. He is another one of their players that is a free swinger, so they hope the limited playing time he had last year will help him in preparations to the upcoming season. But, if Headly stuggles, veteran Cliff Floyd will be ready to join the lineup; Uncle Cliffy is nowhere near his old self though.

The Padres just hope that Nick Hundley, Henry Blanco and Matt Antonelli are more productive than their pitchers.

Aaah, onto Brian Giles. We like to rattle off names like Giambi, Bonds, Clemens, Pettitte and maybe even Big Papi and Jason Varitek as possibly some of the 103 players that tested positive in 2003 for PEDs that are still unknown. How many of you have had Brian Giles come to mind? Let’s take a look at his home run totals between 1999-2002: 39, 35, 37, 38. Now, how many HRs did he have in his 3rd year in the league, 1998? 16. How many homers did he hit the year that 104 players tested positive for steroids in spring training and when the gov’t started sticking their nose in it in 2003? 20. He also never hit more than 23 in a season since then. Hmmmm, interesting. Nevermind that he ballooned in 1999 and kinda looked like a shorter and faster version of Mark McGwire. That’s right Brian, I think you were a big time juicer. Oh yeah, and he is a woman beater and is trying to claim that she beat him. How’s that roid rage, buddy?

Starting Rotation - Will Jake Peavy make it to opening day? It looks that way, at least since the Padres were unable to unload Peavy in the offseason in an effort to save some money. Peavy remains one of the better starters in the Majors. However, he did miss an entire month last year due to elbow soreness. That is a red flag to the Padres, as well as anyone that might be interested in trading for him. Any elbow injury is always going to bring apprehension when it involves a pitcher. Peavy’s K rate did dip last year for the first time in a few years, and he did not pitch in 200 innings for the first time in 4 years; but, then again, he still had an outstanding 2.85 ERA and a very solid 1.18 WHIP. Peavy is the one player that can bring fans to the park every time he starts, but it is no sure thing that the Pads hang on to him through the trade deadline.

Chris Young is a difficult one to figure out. He has durability concerns since he suffered a forearm strain and elbow stiffness in the same season. He also saw his walk-rate rise as the season progressed.  But, the dude can bring it. His strikeout rate remains to be one of the better in the league; but, he just can’t seem to stay on the mound long enough to help himself or the team he is pitching for.

Josh Geer could be the next good pitcher for the Padres. He impressed in his brief 2008 debut, starting in 5 games and going 2-1. However, a late season call-up needs to be looked at with caution…isn’t that right, Ian Kennedy? There are concerns about his elbow as well and the Padres hope that he doesn’t need Tommy John surgery to repair it.

Bullpen – Trevor Hoffman is gone. Trevor Hoffman is gone! He was the face of the franchise for 16 years and became the all-time saves leader in a Padres uniform; and he is no longer going to be taking the long jog to the mound in the 9th inning. Maybe that is a good thing because any big spot Hoffman was ever in, he blew it. Heath Bell enters spring training as the closer, but anyone in the bullpen at anytime could take the role from him if he falters. The remaining members of the bullpen are solid, but all take on a new role with this season with the departure of Hoffman.

Prediction - 67-72 wins; 4th in the NL West. The good thing that the Padres have going for them is that they play in the weak NL West. If Peavy and Young both end up throwing 35 starts for this team, and they see continued growth at the plate by Headley and Kouzmanoff, the Padres could conceivably steal a few more victories. Don’t get too discouraged, Padre fans; you do live in beautiful San Diego.

Today’s video is a montage of pictures with the theme song(?) of the San Diego Padres:

Popularity: 9% [?]