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January 16, 2009

The Odds-On Favorite: Conference Championship Picks

By Big D
Uh, yup... you'll do.

Uh, yup... you'll do.

Following perhaps one of the strangest NFL Regular Seasons in my lifetime, it should come as no surprise that the playoffs are just as ridiculous and unpredictable. Consider: home teams are 3-5 so far in the playoffs. Teams with a first round bye went 1-3 last week (Thank God for Norv Turner!). And favorites are a combined 3-5 so far against the spread. I’ve talked with some of the… um, “regulars” in the sportsbooks here the past week and everyone is coming to the same conclusion – this year is too unpredictable for anyone but the house to make any consistent money. I’m glad I quit placing bets on games a couple months ago. You know what? I’m just about ready for this season to end…

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog are accurate as of the time this was typed – 9pm Wednesday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

Another fantastic week in the Divisional Round of the playoffs; another 1-3 week to drop the postseason record to 2-6. Not my best showing, by far. With only three games left in the year (even I’m not enough of a degenerate to bet on the Pro Bowl), I’m hoping for a 5-6 postseason to climb back to a modicum of respectability.

CARDINALS (+4.5) over Eagles: I’ve officially entered the “throw logic out the window” mode. The Cardinals barely escaped from the Falcons at home (they got every break in that game), then obliterated the Panthers in Carolina without their best receiver. Philly never had trouble with Minnesota and owned the Giants from the second quarter right to the final gun. So, naturally, Arizona is a 4.5 point dog. Makes perfect sense to me.

STEELERS (-6) over Ravens: Sooner or later, the Ravens are going to run into a team with a defense that will be able to expose Joe Flacco as a rookie quarterback. I’m guessing this is that week – a raucous Pittsburgh crowd, a rejuvenated Steelers offense, and a defense that has been knocking the snot out of people for the past few months. And when your mayor is willing to go so far as to change his name to support the team… well, you’ve gotta like your chances.

RECAP: CARDINALS / STEELERS

Next stop, Tampa Bay.

Lata.

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About The Author

Big D is the Sparty & Friends resident gambling "expert". He lives in the northeast, supports any team whose name begins with "Boston" (except Boston College), and openly spars with other members of the S&F staff over the greatness of Michigan football.

Author Site : http://spartyandfriends.com

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