The Mountains Win Again...

After five straight days of rain, my house finally gave in. The power went out for a couple hours this morning, killing my alarm clock on the only day that I actually set it. Naturally. So, everything for me is a couple hours behind today while I wake up late, get dressed late, drive to my cousin’s house and begin typing late… Let’s see if it affects the weekly picks or not.

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. If you’re playing against me in the Pigskin Pick’Em Pool, don’t expect all my picks to match these – different lines could mean different picks. All lines from Bodog and accurate as of the time this was typed – 9pm 12pm Friday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

After kissing my sister with Thursday’s push (don’t worry, it’s just an expression. I’m an only child), I’m looking for a big number in the win column this week to help the overall 96-104-7 record. Of course, I can’t remember the last week that I wasn’t looking for a big number, but still. Little bit of a problem this week, as five – FIVE! – lines have been pulled off the Bodog boards as a result of injury or other news. So we’ll be using ESPN.com’s lines quite a bit.

Packers (-2) over JAGUARS: If there’s any more convincing statement on just how overrated the Jags were when the season started, it’s this: They’re 2-point home underdogs in Week 15 of the NFL season, to a team with a 5-8 record that has already been eliminated from playoff contention. Yikes.

COLTS (-17) over Lions: Well, I had no problem giving 14 points with the Colts last week against Cincy, so why not give three more to a team with two more losses? Remember, Indy still has a Wild Card berth in hand – in fact, they’re the team I’d least like to face in the playoffs right now. They’re steamrolling teams, albeit teams with 10+ losses…

Redskins (-7) over BENGALS: If you have Clinton Portis in a fantasy league this week, you might want to make sure he’s starting. The Bengals are gawd-awful on defense, and Portis has a point to prove this week after his comments about his coaching staff and teammates. Damn, the whole NFC East is in shambles.

FALCONS (-2.5) over Bucs: (Line from ESPN.com) I still can’t figure out how the Falcons coughed up that game last week in New Orleans, but I’m not taking any chances by betting against them at home in a crucial game for playoff position. You realize it was one year ago yesterday that the best possible thing happened for the Falcons when Bobby Petrino stabbed Arthur Blank square in the heart? They finished last year 1-2, but the loss to Arizona in Week 16 came in OT, so at least it was close. Of course, they had Chris Redman under center for the final four games, taking over from Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington. Slight upgrade there this year…

49ers (+7) over DOLPHINS: (Thank you Mikey… my bad missing the number) I’m not sold on the Fins yet. The Niners are playing out of their minds right now, like a controlled frenzy on the field. Credit Mike Singletary for getting more than the most out of his team.

Seahawks (-2.5) over RAMS: (Line from ESPN.com) This game goes one of two ways. Either the Seahawks maintain the level of play they shows last week against New England and blow the doors off of the Rams, or Seattle has a serious letdown game and barely wins by a field goal. But it’s fairly safe that they’ll win and cover. Let’s call it a 70/30 chance…

Bills (+9) over JETS: Too many points for the Jets to give up after the two eggs they laid the past two weeks. All they had to do was beat a bad Broncos team at home and a worse Niners team on the road, and they’d have the AFC East all but secure already. Instead, they’re the #2 team in a 3-way dogfight, and will likely need to win out to take the division.

Titans (-3) over TEXANS: I know the Texans always play the Titans tough. I know there’s always a little more emotion for the fans when the former Houston team comes to play the current Houston team. But… 3 points? Really? For a 12-1 team with a top 5 defense and the definition of a ball control defense? Ok… thanks, I guess.

CHIEFS (+6) over Chargers: Again, too many points. The Chargers aren’t that good this year, and no road team should be giving six points going into Arrowhead. Especially not a division opponent, and most definitely not a division opponent with a 5-8 record. By the way – highest of high comedy, but if the season ended today the Chiefs would have 2 wins and still have to win a 3-way coin flip just to get the #3 pick in the draft!

RAIDERS (+7.5) over Patriots: (Line from ESPN.com) Even worse – the Raiders would have 3 wins and get stuck with the #6 overall spot! The bottom of the NFL barrel is terrible this year. By the way – this pick is more based on the chances of an appearance by Kevin O’connell or Matt Guitierrez under center for the Pats this week, plus the fact that Randy Moss is questionable in his Oakland return. Though I was looking forward to seeing DeAngelo Hall getting burned by Moss all day long. Too bad Hall’s in Washington now.

CARDINALS (-3.5) over Vikings: (Line from ESPN.com) Going to be tough to bet on Cardinals games the rest of the way in the regular season… They really have nothing to gain or lose anymore with postseason seeding. They really have no chance for the #2 seed and the bye unless Carolina absolutely collapses, and after this win against the Vikings they’ll be just about locked into the #3 spot.

RAVENS (-2) over Steelers: If the Steelers had any semblance of an offensive line, I’d take them here. But Big Ben might get sacked 10 times this week with another 15 knockdowns. He’s going to need a long time in the hot tub after this one.

PANTHERS (-7.5) over Broncos: You thought the Panthers had an easy time running against Tampa last week? Just wait until they get a look at the Broncos’ sieve of a D-Line. If Denver doesn’t stack 11 in the box at all times (hell, they’re going to need 15 in the box the way they’re going) Carolina should have another 300+ team rushing yards.

Giants (+2.5) over COWBOYS: (Line from ESPN.com) So, one teams’ star receiver shoots himself, the other shoots his mouth off. You know, the NFC East really is in shambles. It’s a sad state of affairs when the Eagles are the most stable team in your division, and their quarterback doesn’t know the rules of the game.

EAGLES (-14) over Browns: I love the thought of Ken Dorsey trying to play quarterback in Philly on Monday Night Football. How many picks you think Asante Samuel has this week? 3? 7? 24?

RECAP: Packers / COLTS / Redskins / FALCONS / 49ers / Seahawks / Bills / Titans / CHIEFS / RAIDERS / CARDINALS / RAVENS / PANTHERS / Giants / EAGLES

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