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December 05, 2008

The Odds-On Favorite – Week 14 NFL Picks

By Big D
Sadly, those are not my hands...

$50 says that's not the first time random hands have been there...

I almost opened this post with a picture of a postage stamp.  Here’s the deal – it’s midnight on Friday morning.  I actually have to work tomorrow at a job that I can’t blow off for an hour to sift through NFL lines.  I’ll be occupied from 8am until 8pm, so obviously I’ve got to get these picks up before I goto bed tonight.  Hence, the “mailing it in”.  Hey, at least I remembered I needed to post more than 45 minutes before the post was published this time…

Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. If you’re playing against me in the Pigskin Pick’Em Pool, don’t expect all my picks to match these – different lines could mean different picks. All lines from Bodog and accurate as of the time this was typed – 12am Friday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)

I finally have a winning record on a Thursday after correctly forseeing the Raiders getting their doors blown off in San Diego.  That win plus last week’s 8-8 showing puts me at 89-96-6 against the spread for the 2008 NFL season.  Ever so slowly, I’m sneaking inside of the 10-game mark to a .500 record.

COLTS (-14) over Bengals: If Cincy wins one more game this season, I’ll be shocked.  If they keep any game within two scores, I’ll be shocked.

BEARS (-7) over Jaguars: The Bears laid a complete egg on national TV last Sunday night, less than 72 hours after I professed my love for their NFC Title Game chances.  Let’s see how they rebound.

Texans (+6) over PACKERS: Lots of big lines this week, but considering some of the mismatches they’re warranted.  This isn’t so much as mismatch as it is a team making a last stand for the playoffs against a team playing with nothing to lose and building for ‘09.

TITANS (-14) over Browns: Ken Dorsey is starting this game for Cleveland.  That should tell you all you need to know about this pick.

Vikings (-7.5) over LIONS: (Line from ESPN.com) I’m out of ideas for Lions’ jokes this year.  Anybody heard any new ones?  Sparty, I’m looking your way…

GIANTS (-7.5) over Eagles: Remember when I laughed the last time these two played because the line was so friggin ridiculous… ya, this one is even worse.  Nobody knows what the Eagles are going to do on offense.  The Giants need to put up a big number to prove they don’t need Plax to beat an average to above-average team.

Falcons (+3) over SAINTS: Can’t even begin to figure this one out.  The Saints might have a ridiculous offense, but their defense might allow Michael Turner 300 yards rushing.

Jets (-4) over 49ERS: No reason the Jets shouldn’t be at least a TD favorite here.  None.

Dolphins (Pk) over BILLS: (Game in Toronto)  Those parenthesis are completely killing the action on this game.  The Bills would probably be 3 point favorites at home in the Buffalo elements in December.  but in Toronto in the dome… who knows what’s going to happen.

BRONCOS (-10) over Chiefs: Denver has a score to settle after getting embarrassed in KC earlier this year.  I say they jump out early and don’t let off the gas until the 2-minute warning in the 4th quarter.

Patriots (-5) over SEAHAWKS: On a radio interview here in Boston earlier this week, Matt Hasselbeck actually didn’t know his teams’ record.  Couldn’t remember if they had 2 wins or 3.  I’m not sure if that’s worse that Donovan McNabb not knowing the overtime rules, but I can guarantee it won’t get the same media attention.

Rams (+14) over CARDINALS: When was the last time you felt confident about the Arizona Cardinals winning a game by two touchdowns?  Me either.

STEELERS (-3) over Cowboys: Pittsburgh is making a serious push for locking up the #2 seed in the AFC, as well as earning the title of the toughest team in the playoffs.

Redskins (+6.5) over RAVENS: (Line from ESPN.com) Just don’t like that line for some reason.  Call it a gut feeling, but I think the Skins can hang close or maybe even pull out a win in this game.

PANTHERS (-3) over Bucs: I’m going to kick myself when the Panthers fail to cover a home favorite line late in the season for like the 472nd consecutive time.

RECAP: COLTS / BEARS / Texans / TITANS / Vikings / GIANTS / Falcons / Jets / Dolphins / BRONCOS / Patriots / STEELERS / Redskins / PANTHERS

Lata.

Popularity: 3% [?]

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About The Author

Big D is the Sparty & Friends resident gambling "expert". He lives in the northeast, supports any team whose name begins with "Boston" (except Boston College), and openly spars with other members of the S&F staff over the greatness of Michigan football.

Author Site : http://spartyandfriends.com

21 Comments

comments RSS
  • rekcalsa says:

    Yesterday’s chick was better…this girl’s pretty hot though too….those are my hands btw.  

    (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    where is knightro???  

    (Quote)

  • knightwhosaysni says:

    Really I was all like this in front of Tony Romo and he didn’t even try anything. I guess it’s true about only steers and queers in Texas.  

    (Quote)

  • knightro says:

    So that’s how it is sparty? “Dance, monkey boy! Dance!” “Give us a caption!” I’m feeling used…  

    (Quote)

  • knightwhosaysni says:

    “Here if you pull my finger you can use my butt as a hand warmer.”  

    (Quote)

  • knightro says:

    So that’s how it is sparty? “Dance, monkey boy! Dance!” “Give us a caption!” I’m feeling used like miz…

      

    (Quote)

  • sae says:

    Testing begins for the new ‘replace your guide dog with a cheerleader program’  

    (Quote)

  • knightro says:

    So that’s how it is sparty? “Dance, monkey boy! Dance!” “Give us a caption!” I’m feeling used like miz…

      

    (Quote)

  • knightro says:

    “You can get a good look at a steak quarterback by sticking your head up a bull’s cheerleader’s ass…”

    /tommy boy’d  

    (Quote)

  • knightro says:

    “$50 dollars says that’s not the first time random hands $50 has been there.”  

    (Quote)

  • knightro says:

    In a pilot program in the NFL the long snapper is replaced with a “wide snapper”.

    /mikey region’d  

    (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    i think you have more than made up for you absence earlier in the week.  

    (Quote)

  • knightwhosaysni says:

    wide snapper, heh.  

    (Quote)

  • knightro says:

    The Tennessee Titans introduce their new mascot, The Tennessee Loose’n  

    (Quote)

  • illformula says:

    Titans (-14) – Couldn’t agree more. This should be a similar game to the Thanksgiving ass raping everyone witnessed.

    Saints (-3) – While I think that ATL is a legit contender in the South and that the Saints’ D isn’t very good, the Saints play well in that shit hole of a dome.

    49ers (+4) – Jets traveling out west where they previously didn’t show up against the Raiders, I’ll take a much more motivated 49ers team getting pts at home.

    Cards (-14) – Come on… The Rams’ D is going to stop the Cardinals? Not a chance. And Bulger is going to throw at least 2 pickles with that O-line. Warner+short field = Cover.  

    (Quote)

  • guyinthecorner says:

    I can’t believe I’m the only one that noticed this but… Colt’s giving 14 points! That’s insanity.

    I’m going to list info for the Colts this season…

    Week 1 – lost by 16 to the Bears in Indy
    Week 2 – beat Minnesota by 3 after the Vikes kicked 5 FGs and turned it over so that the Colts could score 18 unanswered points
    Week 3 – lost to the Jags by 2 in Indy
    Week 4 – Bye
    Week 5 – beat Houston by 4 after Sage Rosenfels imploded in the final 4 minutes as the Colts scored 21 points
    Week 6 – beat Ravens by 28 in Indy **legitimate win**
    Week 7 – lost by 20 at Green Bay
    Week 8 – lost by 10 at Titans
    Week 9 – beat Pats by 3 after a fishy personal foul penalty took the Pats out of FG range on their final drive
    Week 10 – beat Steelers by 4 after Big Ben thorws terrible pick with a few minutes left in his own territorry to set up the winning TD for the Colts
    Week 11 – beat Texans by 6 after Rosenfels throws pick past midfield on what would have been a game winning drive
    Week 12 – beats Chargers by 3 on Vineteiri last second field goal
    Week 13 – beat Browns by 4 after Ken Dorsey has to replace Derek Anderson halfway through the final drive

    Now. They are 8-4. They have a non-one-score record of 1-3. in the 8 toss up games they have won 7 of 8. How the heck do you give the other team 14 points? And how, big d, do you advise taking the Colts?  

    (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    And how, big d, do you advise taking the Colts?

    the bengals suck.

    /science’d  

    (Quote)

  • mizerle06 says:

    gatortrey – if there’s one thing I learned, it’s to never doubt graddawg. he’s 2-for-2 now with Kiffin to UT and Auburn ousting Tuberville.  

    (Quote)

  • guyinthecorner says:

    The Browns sucked too, as did the Chargers, as do the Texans.

    And the Colts won those three games in the last three weeks by…13 total.

    /science’d  

    (Quote)

  • sparty says:

    yeah, but the bengals have ryan fitzpatrick.

    /more science’d  

    (Quote)

  • guyinthecorner says:

    Ken Dorsey + Sage Rosenfels < Ryan Fitzptrik  

    (Quote)

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