Is it bad that I’ve just started typing, and already my heart is racing and my palms are sweating? Has it really been nine months since I placed a bet on a single football game? Of course, it could just be the thirty beers I drank on Labor Day Eve finally working their way out of my system (God I wish that was an exaggeration…)

Thankfully for me, my long national nightmare has come to an end. Football season starts today (for real), and I get to start pouring over sweetheart teasers, three-team parlays and this year’s money-line system. I’m giddy just typing those words. Let’s jump right in.

(Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past, especially during Week 1 of the NFL season… – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. If you’re playing against me in the Pigskin Pick’Em Pool, don’t expect all my picks to match these – different lines could mean different picks. All lines from Bodog and accurate as of the time this was typed. Home teams in CAPS.That about covers it.)

GIANTS (-4.5) over Redskins:What a fantastic way to kickoff the new NFL season – the defending Super Bowl Champions hosting a divisional team with a whole new coaching staff, a mediocre (at best) quarterback, and about a 40% chance (also at best) to make the playoffs in ’08.On the flip side, WFAN in New York ran a poll this weekend asking which team would have more wins – the Giants or Rutgers. Love the marquee matchup NFL! Thanks for making me post two days in advance just so you can shove this crap down our throat!

RAVENS (-1.5) over Bengals: I have no idea what to expect out of Cincinnati this season. Like I said two weeks ago, a 2-14 season wouldn’t surprise me as much as a 9-7 or better season would. Baltimore made some big moves to get themselves back into the playoff hunt this year. This game will be a good test for both teams – is the Ravens’ offense any better, and can the Bengals defense stop
anybody .

Jets (-3) over DOLPHINS:This is one of the games where having a marquee quarterback gives you that little three point boost you need to start the year. And while it’s generally a bad idea to pick against a home underdog, in Week 1 of the season everyone – including the oddsmakers – are still trying to figure out where the lines should fall. Favre wins this one for the Jets, and gives Chad Pennington something to remember for the game back in the Meadowlands later this year.

Chiefs (+17) over PATRIOTS: This line has been pulled off every board, everywhere now that word has come out that Tom Brady may have a broken bone in his foot. There’s no doubt in my mind that the pats could find a way to pull out a win with Brady forced to play in a wheelchair and throw left-handed for this game, but I despise giving up more than 10 points for any game during the season, let alone Week 1. If they win by 2 or 22, I wouldn’t be surprised either way.

STEELERS (-6.5) over Texans: One of the rare times when a warm weather team doesn’t get penalized for having to go to Pittsburgh for a week. Unfortunately, said warm weather team is the Texans, meaning there isn’t a real good chance they can pull out a win. Don’t be surprised if they have a great fantasy game though, especially Matt Schaub once the Steelers defense shuts down Ahman Green and Steve Slaton.

Jaguars (-3) over TITANS: Another home underdog, and I’ve picked against them both times. The boys back in Vegas would have broken my fingers by now to stop me from finishing this thing. I’ve said it before – I’m extremely high on the Jags this year. And callous though it may sound, the shooting of a teammate less than a week before Opening Day can only add fuel to their fire.

FALCONS (+3) over Lions: No rhyme or reason to this pick, but when two horrible teams square off in Week 1, and one of them is a home underdog, I’m taking the points.

Seahawks (+1) over BILLS: Since Seattle should have the NFC West locked up in about Week 10, they’re going to have to get off to a quick start. And since the Bills can expect to be mathematically eliminated around the same time, no sense in getting their hopes up with an upset win in Week 1. Also, Buffalo is pretty terrible. Seattle is only mediocre. Good enough for me!

SAINTS (-4.5) over Bucs: There’s no line on this game as of post time with the uncertainty in Louisiana, so I’m setting it myself at Saints (-4.5). The Saints made two major improvements in the offseason with Jeremy Shockey and Sedrick Ellis coming in to shore up two problem positions. The Bucs… well, they didn’t get Brett Favre.

EAGLES (-7.5) over Rams: I’m actually expecting a reasonably good season out of Philadelphia this year, maybe even touching .500 when it’s all said and done. Donovan McNabb looks healthy (stop me if you’ve heard that before), Brian Westbrook is still the best all-around runningback in the NFL, and the defense – while no longer dominant – can shut down teams when they need to. The Rams… not so much.

Cowboys (-6) over BROWNS: The only road favorite I feel 100% confident in picking… so they’ll probably lose by 10. Cleveland isn’t 100% healthy going in the season, with Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Josh Cribbs all nursing various bumps and bruises. Dallas however is still sporting the best offense in the NFC (and arguably the best all-around in the league – at least they can run the ball…). And since I’m picking a certain Dallas QB as the league’s MVP this year (teaser teaser teaser… stay tuned later today!) I might as well have them start off with a big road win against a semi-quality opponent.

Panthers (+9) over CHARGERS: Probably the pick I’m least confident in. I have zero faith in the Panthers as a quality team in 2008, but with Philip Rivers, LdT, Antonio Gates and now Shawne Merriman all playing on some form of a gimpy leg, I mean how good can the Chargers really be right out of the gates? can’t wait to bet against them as big favorites from Thanksgiving through the end of the season.

Cardinals (-2.5) over 49ERS: Line seems suspiciously low for a team that is getting a lot of hype as the NFC West sleeper (for the fourth year in a row). Either picking games is too easy, or else the Niners are a lot better than we give them credit for.

COLTS (-10) over Bears: Kyle Orton vs. Peyton Manning. In Indianapolis. To open up the Colts’ brand new mega-bucks stadium. The Bears have no running game, no passing game, and a suspect defense (seriously – they stopped being dominant like five years ago, except for the Super Bowl Run in ’06). Why would I even think they had a chance to cover this line?

PACKERS (-2.5) over Vikings: I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – until Tarvaris Jackson proves he can lead a team for a full season, and until Adrian Peterson proves that there’s no sophomore slump in him, I’m not sold on the Vikings as big-time contenders. .500?Probably. Playoffs? Doubtful. The Packers should have gone to the Super Bowl last year, and since the only thing they lost was an overage quarterback who finally woke up and had a career year, they should still be able to handle business at home, on Monday Night, against their arch-enemies.

RAIDERS (+3) over Broncos: I wrote this a couple weeks ago over on my own page (shameless self-promotion, I know. But my numbers need the boost). I’m actually not going to be surprised by a big year out of Oakland. Or at least, a bigger year than they’ve had in awhile. Denver however, is on my shit list in ’08. I’d be surprised to see them make a serious charge at .500, let alone the post season.

RECAP: GIANTS / RAVENS / Jets / Chiefs / STEELERS / Jaguars / FALCONS / Seahawks / SAINTS / EAGLES / Cowboys / Panthers / Cardinals / COLTS / PACKERS / RAIDERS

For the record, I’m usually horrible in Week 1. I tend to pick it up and gain steam around Week 5 or 6, then tear it up for the rest of the year. And this year, I expect no different. I’ll be back next week, probably after posting a stellar 4-12 to open the 2008 NFL gambling season.

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