Hang on a second… before we dive into the best bets on the board, I need to finish watching the Price is Right Showcases… I’m pretending to win a fabulous bronze covered day bed, an off-road vehicle, a refrigerator/freezer and a camper, among other poorly made prizes…

All right, I blew both showcases. I can’t believe that camper was like 30g’s.  Really could have used that self-satisfaction bump today.  Damn.

Busy day here today.  What with the welcome of the new guy, and, uh, the Morning Post… Let’s just jump into the best bets on the board. Today’s list – the Over/Under on team wins in the 2008 NFL Regular season.

(Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – sorry. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog and accurate as of the time this was typed. That about covers it.)

New England Patriots (±12.5): Like I said back on July 31^st, most conversations about teams in the NFL this year (and especially about futures gambling in the NFL) are going to start right here, with the Patriots. The Pats have an easy schedule – actually easier than last year’s. They face only 4 playoff teams from 2007, and play 11 games against teams with losing records in 2007. The only real impediment to them winning 13 or more games is how early they clinch their playoff position, and if they’ve already lost a game. They might shut it down early to rest since they have their bye in Week 4. Pick: OVER (and this should be the easiest pick to make)

Denver Broncos (±7.5): Denver is somewhat of an enigma to me. They’ve got a quarterback who hasn’t proven anything. They’ve got a lot of built-up cache on their offensive line, but really – when did they last have a dominant running game? Their defensive backfield is as good on paper as any in the league, but I’ve never been convinced that either Champ Bailey or Dre Bly was anything more than a big name route jumper. Pick: UNDER

Jacksonville Jaguars (±10): They haven’t had a losing season since going 5-11 in 2003. They’ve won more than ten games twice in the last four years. They put up eleven wins last season, and should have had twelve if Week 17 had mattered at all to them. Six of their games in 2008 are against 2007 playoff teams, plus two home games against near miss playoff teams Cleveland and Minnesota. And with all of that, I think they’ll be a stronger team in 2008 than they were in ’07. I’m looking for 13 wins out of Jacksonville, so I think you know where this pick is going. Pick: OVER

Cincinnati Bengals (±7.5): Look at this schedule and tell me you can find five games you feel confident about this Bengals team winning. Now imagine needing to feel confident about them pulling out eight wins to cover an Over bet. I see two, maybe three games in which the Bengals will be competitive, and that’s being generous. I’m thinking they’re looking square at a top-5 draft pick in April. Pick: UNDER

Seattle Seahawks (±8.5): The NFC West is the dregs of the NFL. There’s no earthy reason to think the Seahawks can’t pull out at least ten wins when six of their games are against the likes of the Niners, Rams & Cardinals. Throw in the Bills, Jets & Dolphins with the AFC Eats in ’08, and the Seahawks should have yet another weak 10-win season. Pick: OVER

New Orleans Saints (±8.5): I’m back on the Saints’ bandwagon this season. If Deuce MacAllister can come back at even 80% of what he has been to take some of the load off of Reggie Bush, I believe they’ve got enough to make another playoff run. More importantly, for the purposes of this post I believe they’ve got enough for an above .500 season, meaning that 8.5 number should fall. Pick: OVER

Buffalo Bills (±7.5): I can’t fins a single move they made in the offseason aside from making the move from JP Losman to Trent Edwards to make me think they’ve got a .500 or better season in them for 2008. They’ve got a decent running back in Marshawn Lynch and an average defense. But the teams around them in the AFC East made moves to either get better (Jets) or stay better (Patriots), and with games against the AFC West plus travelling to Jacksonville, they’re looking at a long season. Pick: UNDER

Oakland Raiders (±6): This is my sleeper pick. I’m looking at them making legitimate moves to repair a completely broken offense – bringing in Darren McFadden, Javon Walker and Drew Carter to complement JaMarcus Russell – and keeping the core of what was already an average to above average defense intact, and suddenly I’m seeing what could be an 8-8 season ahead for them. Pick: OVER (ahem… I’m not laying a whole lot on this one. This is a flyer pick)

For the record, there are currently five lines on Bodog.com that fall almost right at the number I’m predicting for a team’s wins in 2008. I hate making a bet and hoping for a push, so I’m staying away from those teams. I’ll be back for Week 1 of the season with the weekly picks, towards the end of every week. Feel free to e-mail me using bigd29x[at]gmail[dot]com if you have questions or picks you need help with. That’s what I’m here for.

Lata.

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